"Contract Incentives: The Secret"

I know that you and I had the same exact thought when the Cavaliers offered hustle player Anderson Verejao to a 6 year, $50 million dollar contrac: "WTF are you doing Danny Ferry? Are you drunk?". Rightfully so. On the surface, that contract appears to pay Verejao an average of $8.3 million a year for 6 whole years. A bit much? Further investigation shows us that these "incentives" exist in his contract, but what does that matter, the guy signed for $50 million!

Well, it actually does matter Anderson, because these incentives will likely turn that $50 million into a much lesser sum. Figured I would just let you all in on the big secret of "contract incentives".

Did you know that these players would have earned:

-$1.5 million dollar bonus for Luke Ridnour if he won Defensive Player of the Year

-$500,000 for Nick Collison if he won the League MVP!

-$500,00 for Adonyle Foyle if would of won Finals MVP!

-And so many other just almost mockingly genius incentives planted into the contract.


Don't get me wrong, Luke Ridnour is a nice little all around PG. But we all know he's an offensive PG, and out of the starting 30 PG's in the NBA, he might be the 30th when it comes defense......yes, Nash is a better all around defender than Ridnour. So it was almost like the GM was mocking Luke when he asked him to sign the contract, just so he could see the look on Luke's face when he read "$1.5 million for Defensive Player of the Year"; Luke must of laughed at it......or at least I hope so......

My point is simple. In these nasty economic times, these contract incentives becomes so far-fetched that the entire point of having them is pretty much useless. When a it appears that "Anderson Verajao signed a 6 yearm $50 million dollar that is only half the truth. There is obviously a team option, maybe two or three in it. There are TONS of incentives; I'm sure he has to average a double/double each year to get $1 mil each year. Or maybe he has to lead the league in charges and he gets $500,000. Or maybe he has to average a double/double while the Cavs win the Finals and he gets a $2 million dollar "bonus". Reality: it's not a bonus. That "6 year for 50 million" is the MAXIMUM he will possibly make in that time; I'd give it a 0.2% chance of happening. But who knows, these are just guesstimations. I did actually read that I believe around $40-$42 of his actual contract is guaranteed. That makes it sound a lot less ridiculous. From almost $10mil a year to analyzing it and realizing it's more like $6.7 mil a year.

That specific example was just one of the many, many contract incentives that exist. I have only mentioned 5 or 6, when most all contracts have some type of incentive in it. I know Mario Chalmers got an "extra" $25 thousand for showing up to training camp in good shape and participating throughout. Not bad. So who knows, maybe Ridnour will work on his defense the next year and climb to the ranks of the Dwight Howard's, Ron Artest's, Marcus Camby's, Ben Wallace's, and Shane Battier's for DPOY. They are the only thing standing between his $1,500,000.

Then again, Eric Dampier might end up as the getting voted in by coaches for the back-up Center gig on the Western Conference All-Star Team this season(09-10). When it's officially, Mark Cuban I believe has $750,000, or maybe a straight up $1.0 million due to Eric.

If that happens, I will literally stop blogging forever and possibly shoot myself in the nuts. Not that I blog much anyway.....

Wake Me Up When September Ends

I'm bein completely honest.... Wake me up when September ends. I'd put a YouTube clip of that song by Green Day, but it's lyrics really stray from my point. All I know is one thing: when ESPN's main NBA news is about Delonte West missing a practice and how it could relate to his depression, well, there just isn't much to talk about. All the newsworthy Free Agents are signed and I believe every team is in training camp. We can talk about possibilities for each team. Or we could just wait till the games begun.

Wake me up on October 30th so I have a day to regroup.

"Iverson: Really There To Win?"

"He indicated to us that he just wants to come in and help a team out, to get better, to win, and he'll shine during that process. I think Allen Iverson is going to be very fine with whatever role he would end up fulfilling here in Memphis. … He knows where we're coming from, we know where he's coming from and I think if he comes here it's going to be a very productive marriage."(ESPN). I've also read many other quotes from Iverson, many simimlar to this: "You think I came to Memphis to help them sell tickets? I came here to Memphis to win." He eitehr really believes they will win any make the playoffs, or he is just doing the right thing by saying that. "Coming off the bench is not a problem; I'd rather start, but it's no problem. I signed with this team becaue I've done it all. I'm a HOF'er, Scoring Leader Champ, etc, but still haven't gotten that Championship ring. I believe this team can win, and I think I could get that ring here in a couple years".

Now those aren't exact quotes(other than the first from ESPN), so there are no sources for the others. But trust me, I am just relaying what he has said in a quicker manner. He goes on to say many pretty unbelieveable things, so I just kept it simple. So does the NBA really lie this much, or are the Grizzlies GM's and Iverson living in a dreamworld where Iverson is 25, Zach Randolph is the best team playing PF, Gasol is actulla his older brother, Mike Conley is who we thought he would of been, and well, OJ Mayo is OJ Mayo, except now he has A.I. next to him. Is that really what they think?

Alright. I posted some quotes, responded to them, now let me break this down with my so very unique, intellectual, engaging, and witty analysis(yea......just believe that's true). So I thnk the first subject is Allen Iverson. Who is he now(personality/humbled) and what kind of athlete(skills) does he bring to this young Memphis team at his elderly age of 34/35; elderly for the NBA of course.

The Grizzlies won around 20 games last year(more or less), and I think it's 100% apparent that Iverson had NO other offers from ANY other teams; you know, those REAL, TANGIBLE offers that you can sign. The Griz were the only team, and of course, he happens to sell a ton of Jersey's and will hopefully raise their attendance from the worse in the NBA last year to somewhere other than last this season.

According to Iverson and GM/Owner Heisley/Wallace, I guess adding Zacn Randolph, Allen Iverson, and rookie Hasheem Thabeet(with other slight additions and subtractions), means you go from a 20 win team to a 50 win team. Honestly, I'm not sold, lmao. I am sold on Iverson's jersey though, and I know tons of Memphis kids are already rocking that #3 A.I. jersey as it's already been released.

At the end of the season, let's compare their record to last year(differential) to their increase in attendnance and sold merchandise/jersseys(differential). I think we all know that this was just one of those moves for a small market team to get a HOF guard, who was once AMAZING, and signed him for $3.1 million. Can't really complain.

"The Session is Finally Over....right?"

I honestly hate trying to come up with titles. I think so black and white sometimes; I wanted to title this: "Ramon Sessions Future" or something of that taste, but it's got no flare. So to answer the main question(and Title), Ramon Sessions remains in the "restricted free-agency zone"; it can really be a lonely place.

To be honest, I thought he was going to be a sought after player, at least moreso than Jarret Jack who is a less efficient and worse attitude version of Sessions, among lack of floor vision and many other things. Anyway, to the point: I am quite surprised that Milwaukee did not match the offer from Minnesota instantly(believed to be $3.5mil this season and $16mil total over 4 years). So at least the kid finally has some financial security playing and living around these rich lifestyle players and society. Props to Ramon for making $700k last year to nearly $4 million this year.

Maybe I am just oblivious with this kid, at the age of 23 now, was has proven to be an effective player, starting or coming off the bench. He has incredible floor vision, and easily will average 10 assists a game for Minny if they played him 36 mpg at PG. But let's not get ahead of ourselves.

All I'm saying is Milwaukee is BARELY over the luxury tax threshold. They could of easily traded a player for a cheaper player, or just done some swift maneuvering, as they've been doing, as they only needed to cut 1.5 million to match this offer and be under the luxury tax. Personally, I think he's worth it. But maybe he's just not right for their system. I will say, without a doubt, that he is the best PG in Milwaukee if he were to stay there(Ridnour, Jennings; is Jennings really that amazing? I'm honestly asking....).


He showed up at the end of the 2007-08 season, after the Bucks knew they were out of the playoffs. He put on a great performance in the 7 games he started, averaging crazy numbers; something like 17 ppg and 13 apg. Yes, I understand that was the end of the season games where non-playoff teams play their youth and playoff locked teams might rest their best players. But for a 56th Overall pick in 2007, he showed some serious promise by the end of the season.


Now enters Skiles, along with Like Ridnour: "the definition of mediocre PG", though efficient. He won't make amazing plays to get a basket or create for someone else, but he will run the offense, pass the ball well, and shoot when open(at a nice rate). So this entire season was a battle between these two PG's, especially before Redd went down. I think Ridnour stayed as the starter(Skiles does love his smart, white PG's that are basically clear-cut images of himself 15 years ago)


So he's a 6th man'ish type of player for the first half of the season getting 20 minutes a game; Redd goes down, Bucks lack depth, step in Sessions. Like Skiles loves to do, he sort of went to a 2-guard offense that adapted to their overall offense. Sessions isn't a pure SG by any means, nor is he the size of one. What he is, though, is a great PG. I can't stress this enough. This season all-together he averaged:


Per Game
12.4 ppg~~5.7 apg~~3.4 rpg~~1.1 spg~~45%FG~~~27.5mpg


Notice that last number italicized: 27 minutes a game was what he played. So, obviously, you know me and my love of statistical analysis, let's see what Sessions numbers would be if he were to, let's say, play 36 minutes as a starter(Per36):


Per36
16.2 ppg~~ 7.5 apg ~~4.5 rpg ~~1.4 spg~~45%FG~~~Per36mpg


Obviously those number's aren't too shabby, considering he's a little guard that shoots 45% from the field is a great sign too(there's too many borderline 40% FG guards out there, i call them "chuckers"; sorry Baron Davis). So he's basically a 16 and 7 guy, which is basically what we would call a solid starting PG. And then add the fact that his man-defense is actually good, how in God's name did Ridnour play over him? I bet money Eddy Curry could cross up Ridnour and get to the rim(if he can make it that far, lmao).


So I've made my case for him being a solid starting PG, right? We need to remember that he was playing SG quite a bit this season as well; I believe he logged around 20% of his minutes as a SG. Then take a further look, and his Efficiency, Production, PER, and every other measurable stat shows that he is far, far more productive at PG than he is at SG(whe he doesn't belong). So in theory, if one were to calculate what his statistics would be as a starting PG, playing 36 minutes(all at the PG spot), that his stats would be superior to those that his Per36 showed. A quick analysis(I am tired and my calculator broke....). Farc's prediction of Ramon Sessions stats if he were to start at PG and play 36 minutes(all at PG); we'll call this Farc36:


Farc36 18.6 ppg~~8.7 apg~~5.4 rpg~~45%FG~~1.7 spg~~~Farc36mpg


Now that, my friends, my colleagues, my fans, my 3 consistent Farc's blog readers, will be the production Ramon Sessions is going to do show Minnesota if Milwaukee does not match the offer. Call me an idealist, but even if he were to just put up his normal, projected Per36, that would mean they still upgraded to a good PG for the next 2 years(maybe more, Mr. Rubio). Right now I would go on a rant about the Rubio situation, but I'm saving it for another day. So, you see, this is one of those times I will go out on a limb and predict something boldly, something people probably don't agree on. Sessions, if given 36+mpg for Minnesota, has a change to get the "Most Improved Player Award" while also creating some turbulence with not only his name, but the team. What has Minny lacked for so many years now? A true PG. Now they have a 23 year old sessions who they got(hopefully; knock on wood) for very cheap in my opinion,. Johnny Flynn, back tot he bench, lol, Ramon is in town. That should be a good batte in training camp, though they might just start together.


Let's do a "What If?" scenario.............I swear, these are always fun:

What if Ramon Sessions is a 20 ppg__10 apg__2 spg stud PG at the end of the 2010-2011 season and helps the Wolves edge into the playoffs? What now Minny? Is Rubio still your "Savior"?





Let me know what you think; maybe I'm just crazy thinking Ramon Sessions can turn into a top 10 PG and nearly a 20/10 guy.

"The NBA 2k9 Addiction"

Remember to click on any picture to see the full, HQ version

Wow. It's really been that long since I've last sat down and blogged my crazy opinions and perspectives on the world of basketball. With the 2009 Draft Complete, with all the major trades done around draft day, and with all the important FA signings all in the past, it's like a desert out here. I've thought about blogging about "AI will go to Miami, trust me......or Charlotte", but it seems everyone else is on the same, repetitive, overdone, boring topics. So my topic is that I have no topic.

I've been on a blogging hiatus after my full-fledged NBA 2k9 addiction took over my entire existence. This game by 2k Sports is simply amazing, and I'm talking about the PC version. I am a console gamer(well, used to be), but now that many companies are porting to PC I have no need to but the next Playstation 69 or the next X-box 1080. I happen to be a computer techie part-time too, so my PC is a very high end machine, for running software and gaming. After taking a look at this game on a great computer, watching it on an X-box is just plain ugly. So my infatuation began.

Then I joined this little, goofy, fun league with many of use young 20 somethings obsessed with the NBA and basketball. There are 30 of us all active on a daily basis(yes, there are that many people who have no lives it seems; not just myself). We are each our own GM of an NBA team to start; we used the start date on Draft Day 2008 so we had our set rosters from that exact day, then did the draft, then did the Free-Agency. Now we're set on trading players and building the biggest, best franchise possible. But myself and many others have done these leagues for years(yes, it's sad, lol), and you don't just play one season. You likely play 2 to 3, which means you might want to trade for youth, cap-space, and draft picks, so you can win it all in 2010 after picking up a big free agent(there is actually a few official persons who acts as "Player Agents" who have nothing to do with the game itself), and they treat it real. I can offer Platyer A an extension before he he becomes a FA, but if the Player Agent thinks he can get more money on the market, you will be delightfully declined. I am ranting.

You are probably wondering how we play games. It's a fantasy league going on during the off-season. Well, we use this beautiful system I use, NBA 2k9, to do it all(well most of it). My other good buddy has a different game, one in which he does everything I do to make it realistic(I will explain soon). So initially you get 2k9 and simulate a full season as any team, and the stats are all crazy. Jason Kidd averages 23ppg, 12apg, 6rpg like its a decade ago. Half the league is shooting 50% from the 3pt line. You get my point.

That is where my addiction to be perfect comes in. Each individual player in this game you can edit. They have Attributes(skills) and Tendencies(instincts). To name a few; Attributes: Close, Mid, 3pt, Speed, On-Ball Defense, Post-Defense, Post-Offense, Passing, Ballhandling, Off/Def Awareness, and probably 10-20 more settings; all of which are on a scale of 50 to 100(yes it's weird you can't go below 50, but I don't think any player in the NBA would have a skill below 50). To name a few Tendencies: Mid, 3pt, Attack the Basket, Back to the Basket, Isolate, Fancy Passes, Shooting Tendency(overall most important one, a high one means they take 20 FGA a game). Yes this is boring, but I've spend literally hours each day the past few weeks editing all this.

That's right. I've edited all 350+ Players that are in this game. I've tweaked every single attribute, and tendency they have. Yes, my life consists of a box of doughnuts, Monster energy drinks, and a computer desk. And I might just have to boast and brag a little here, because I think I've perfected the system to a science. Using great sources like Basketball-Reference, 82games, and many others, I have been able to make each player emulate what he does in real life. If 34% of his shots are from 3pt, 50% from mid-range, and 16% in the paint, I guarantee you that player has those exact tendencies. Pretty wild isn't it?

So now when I simulate a season, Kidd averaged 10ppg, 8apg, and 6rpg with his casual 2.0apg on this current Dallas team. Lebron finishes the 2009-10 season with 30.6ppg, 8.1rpg, 7.8apg, 1.9bpg, and 1.4spg. Pretty slick. Then if I decided to just look at a certain box-score of when Houston played against the Cavs.....I notice that Lebron went 7/21 from the field.... must be because Shane Battier stuck to him like glue all game. I can't rant enough about how realistic this stuff is.

So anyway, to finish this boring blog up explaining what I've slaved over the past weeks, is I set all those players to real life settings. Then I swapped up all the rosters, and each GM has their own team; they've made tons of trades, and lineups look all kinds of colors. I am the 76ers and Danny Granger is my star SF, with Kevin Martin at SG; not a bad 1,2 punch if I say so. So all of our teams are personalized, and until the trade deadline we trade, and then apply the trades to the game. You also set the rotations for your team(by position and target minutes), but I'll just leave it at that.

So 30 GM's, 30 teams, and we hae a set web-site with a set schedule where we play 58 games a season(each team twice). I match the teams up in the game, I simulate the results, I take a screen-shot of the box-score, and that is that. The total result is a little more complex, but I'll just leave you with that. I take it my team isn't looking to bad by the looks of it*(this was before I traded for Granger and K-Mart and others, but it's a prime example of what you look at when you want to see your match-up result(remember, I am Philly):

Too bad Philly's future isn't that bright in reality.......or is it?



JoshFarc is Officially back to his daily'ish blog. Subscribe!

"Tonight's the Night"

That's right. Tonight's the night. It's the night that this series becomes a legit series or is declared over. It's sometimes amazing how quickly people will dismiss a team. Sure, as a Laker fan I have been talking some serious ****. "The Magic are just not on their level", "Dwight Howard is more like Wonder Woman than Superman", etc, etc. But really, aside from Game 1's complete domination, this series isn't quite over yet. The Lakers did what they SHOULD of done: won the first 2 games at home. Sure it puts them in the driver's seat, but it's not like it's over yet.

Let's remember back to the 2006 finals. Dallas goes up 2-0 on the Heat. They lose the series 4-2. While the Lakers aren't that Dalals team, and I'm not saying this Orlando team has anyone like Dwayne Wade or Shaq, but this team is far from giving up. Hell, even last years finals was somewhat similar. The Lakers lost to Boston in a somewhat disappointing fashion in both games at Boston. Down 2-0 they came home, won game 3, SHOULD have won game 4 ( yes, I still have nightmares from being at that game), and then won game 5. Series at 3-2 going back to Boston. Now while they could of been up 3-2 going back to the East coast, it was still a competitive series.

Don't expect anything less out of this Orlando squad. They have shown throughout the playoffs that they can bounce back, and we're talking with a vengeance here. Multiple times the suffered bad, double digit losses (and a Lebron James buzzer-beater that could literally shatter a teams morale), and the following games came out fired up, hot, and executing on both ends. Expect nothing less.

I honestly, at this point, expected no different. Orlando looked like the newly acclimated "best team in the East", and played like it as well. They appeared quite jittery in Game 1, possibly intimidated by the situation. Game 2 looked a lot different. Howard was still Wonder Woman, but Rashard Lewis was Superman and the rest of the team looked much better. I expect this team to continue that play on their home-court tonight. Great team's built like the Orlando Magic tend to hit their open 3's at home.

Of course, Dwight Howard might of left the kryptonite in Los Angeles as well. He could come out with a 30 point, 20 rebound performance to lead the way for Orlando. Van Gundy is a smart, savvy coach that knows how to counter, scheme, and execute. Expect no less here in the finals. This Orlando team is far from accepting a defeat to the best team in the NBA. Orlando has too much talent, too much offense, and too much fire to expect any different.

Am I saying they will win tonight? Possibly. As a Laker fan, I tend to impulsively think otherwise, but then I put on that little rational cap. For us Lakers to beat Orlando tonight, we are going to have to play like we did in Game 1, if not better. Orlando is going to hit shots, get behind their home-crowd allowing their role players to get a bit more comfortable and step-up, and expect their stars to be more aggressive. That means the Lakers have to counter.

Kobe needs to show up and have a very productive, and efficient night. If he scores 30, it needs to be on 20 shots. If he scores 40, it needs to be on 25 shots. I think Kobe knows this is a game that can change the outlook of the series, and I predict he comes out firing on all cylinders. I do have this feeling that our role players(yes, including you "El Machino" who can't hit **** from anywhere on the court) might struggle a bit tonight. For us to win, not only does Kobe need to have a great game, but Gasol needs to establish himself inside like this is a brand new game. The inside/out is so important for the Lakers offense running at a high level. That means Bynum's post game needs to be working a bit as well. And of course, it wouldn't hurt if "El Machino" could get a mechanic out to work on him. It woulld be nice to see him show up someday.

Most important thing for the Lakers tonight: Defense. They need to play that aggressive, swarming, trapping defense we've seen them play off and on. They need to continue forcing rushed shots, turnovers, and convert those plays into easy baskets. I'd say if we can force 16 turnovers tonight and get some good fast-break points we are in the drivers seat. The Lakers need to harness all these things and execute it for 48 minutes. Any less and it's as good as Orlando's game tonight.

But now, with all that being said, here is what I predict as the outcome:

Lakers: 98 Orlando: 94

Kobe: 38 points, 8 assists, 6 rebounds, 2 steals, 1 block.

It's up to you God...........

"NBA Finals"

The time has finally come. All my past homerish and boastful statements of the LA Lakers just changed from homer statements to the discussion of an intelligent basketball fan. Seems to me that my prediction of Lakers over Denver in 6 games seemed about right, and I think everyone else agrees too. So now that I have annoyingly picked myself up and I now feel like I'm as smart as Bill Simmons, it's time to move on to the oh so intriguing NBA Finals.

ADAM MORRISON vs. JJ REDDICK: A BATTLE OF AGES!

As Bill Simmons put it(he's one of my favorite writers of all the internet), we have the battle of two of the possibly biggest busts to come out of the draft in recent years(and don't get me started on them being white). But I'll end this discussion quickly: Ammo, aka Morrison, wins this fight in 1 round with a knock-out. Morrison hasn't logged a single minute this entire playoffs while Reddick actually looked like a legit player in that Boston series. Ammo was also a top 5 pick in the NBA draft(#3 I believe), so he's the overwhelming winner here. Now to the serious matters inolving players that actually see the court on these teams.

To be honest, I must say this is the most confident I have been as a Laker fan the entire playoffs. After that Houston series I admit, I questioned them a bit, but the way they finished out that Denver series was all I needed to see. Basically from the last minutes of quarter 3 in Game 5 through the entire Game 6 at Denver, the LA Lakers looked like that dominant team we were so accustomed to watching all season. Just in time too.... thank God.

The Magic are still in a similar spot though. They pulled a similar stint; Orlando was considered a "good" team at the start of Game 6 at Boston. Once they started playing some serious ball, somewhere in that game they transformed themselves into a legit contender. They won Game 6, then went on to beat Boston in Game 7 AT BOSTON. That's amazing, with or without KG. Then they completely handled the Cavs(like I thought, though I didn't blog about that) with Orlando's forwards causing some serious trouble(like I thought as well). Damn, I really should of wrote a blog on that since I could be taking tons of credit for it....

So how can I be so confident the Lakers will be able to prevail here? How can my prediction, yet again, be the Lakers in 6? It's simple really: the role players are starting to actually contribute, they match-up quit well, and then there's this guy on our team.... I forget... that's right, I think he's number 24. That sound right?


Turk won't have the pleasure of 6'2" Delonte West guarding them. Shard Lewis won't have the privlage of camping out on defense with Ben Wallace or Andy Verajao roaming around doing nothing. Someone has to guard Kobe, and while Pietrus did a nice job on Lebron(limiting him to what, 40ppg?), Kobe is a whole different force to stop. Then of course we have our only real weakness of the Lakers, our PG rotation and starting PG, but Rafer Alston isn't going to really cause any problems for them, not at all. Then there's the fact that the Lakers actually have 3 or 4 bench players that can contribute while the Magic have 1, maybe 2. Dwight Howard is their only real match-up advantage, and while it's a big one, it's not enough.

So yes, the Lakers will win this series in 6 games. Why 6? Well, Orlando plays a very unique style of basketball. One that has them shooting 20-30 3pt shots a game. Believe it or not, when you have amazing shooters surrounding a beast inside, those shots tend to fall in some games. Especially when the guys shooting it are all 40%+ 3pt shooters like Shard, Pietrus, Lee, and Turk. So I am counting on them making those shots at a high clip for 2 games. It could be 3, it could be 1, but allowing 2 games is all I am doing.

I just think Lewis will have serious trouble guarding both Pau and Odom; he won't be resting on defense anymore. I think Ariza will have a great series on both ends of the floor matched-up with Turk. Bynum will use his fouls on Dwight, but Dwight will have a great series. The PG's will be mediocre on both sides, and the bench for the Lakers stands out a bit more than the Magic. Kobe will do his thing, and I honestly believe he will silence the critics that tout he never has his "A-game" in the Finals. He'll shoot 50% averaging 27/6/5 or around there, and it will allow him to escape the gloomy shadows of never winning a ring whilst being the best player on that team.

I have another little theory too, though it's a little one for a reason. Remember how we began the pre-season with Lamar starting at SF with Gasol/Bynum at the PF/C spots. It wasn't very successful with most teams, so it was basically dismissed entirely all season; I'm not sure I've seen it since. But I see these matchups in this series, and I keep thinking: "Why not bring that lineup back?". Now we shouldn't start with it, but I want to see it implemented a little, but ONLY if Gasol causes enough problems with Shard guarding him. If so, I think Odom could defiitely get away with playing SF on Turk, a guy that is even laterally slower than LO himself. Then I would move Ariza to SG(he's shown he's more than capable to do so, especially when it's Lee/Pietrus at the SG spot). Last, but most importantly, is Kobe at the PG spot. This Orlando team isn't going to cause much problems with Rafer at point; sometimes they even run with Lee at PG, which makes even more sense for Kobe to enjoy some PG time. Orlando doesn't have amazing perimeter defenders, they aren't going to run some high-pressure full-court press(tm), and the Lakers will have no problem running with this set, not on either end. Hell, we could leave Kobe and Ariza at SG/SF and let Lamar run the point. I think he could just roam off of Alston on defense effectively enough it might work.

My point is simple: the Lakers cause more matchup problems than Dwight Howard does. The Lakers have countless options with their lineups and schemes. With Orlando you know what you're going to get. A high pick-n-roll with Turk/Howard at the top of the key; a low post with Dwight Howard to either draw a double and hit a shooter or do his thing inside. That's pretty much it. Of course, they also jack-up a lot of quick three's as well. It's rather simple.

The Lakers are a bit more complex. While the triangle is somewhat simple(though it has this perception of complexity), the Lakers have quite a few options on offense: high post triangle; post up Gasol OR Bynum OR Odom; Kobe side-post triangle; or just penetrate and kick like the Magic, run some pick-n-rolls, or just let Kobe take over and go anywhere on the court he wants to, and that does include the basket. The Magic do have Dwight Howard, which can be a problem, but I don't think it's enough. Especially when their perimeter defenders aren't amazing and allow tons of penetration, which obviously means Howard will commit fouls as the playoffs have shown.

And of course, Kobe is hungrier than he's been in awhile. Last year left a sour taste in his mouth, and he's not settling for anything less than winning the Finals MVP and winning in a solid fashion. I think we will see a very unique Kobe this series. I don't think he has to score 40 points in any game, and I don't know if he will. I think we might see the 25-30 point Kobe that picks his spots. The one that draws defenses to allow him to pass to an open cutter or shooter and get 5-10 assists. The one that plays some really tight defense. The one that trusts his teammates, and makes the team better(see Game 6). And of course, the one that takes over in the last 5 or so minutes of the game and leads the Lakers to victory.

And this is why the Lakers will win the series in 6 games. That's right. The official Nostradumbass of the NBA(shamefully that's myself) is not claiming, but stating the Lakers WILL win this series in 6 games. Oh how shiny that trophy will look with Pau and Kobe holding it.

(officially knocking on wood; you'll thank me for it)

"WCF: Lakers vs Nuggets"

Finally. The Lakers chose to show up Sunday in a dominating win to clinch their series with Houston in a "bi-polar fashion", as Kobe put it. So now we can finally look at the Western Conference Finals, and by that I mean without having to knock on wood after every sentence. Melo, Chauncey, and the Denver Nuggets have just been relaxing this past week; probably watching some ball, eating out at fancy resturaunts, and taking those mid-day naps. Kobe and the Lakers have been flying back and forth between LA and Houston, grinding out an unnecessary long series that is finally over.

So what now. We know that the new wave of media has labeled the Lakers as "arrogant" and I recall Kenny Smith saying "they don't deserve to be the champs". I agree, well, to some small degree, that the Lakers display of attempting to walk through the NBA playoffs without giving 100% effort does show a lack of respect to the opponents; it also shows that they are still a young team trying to figure out their identity with Bynum being integrated back in. The latter is what they forget to discuss, and instead they have created this whole idea that the Lakers are basically the "bad guys" and everybody will be rooting for the Nuggets in this series. This is likely true.

So it's the "good versus evil". The Holy and respectful people of Denver against the arrogant residents of Los Angeles, now the city of demons I guess. Carmelo is the good, Kobe the bad. You get my point. Gotta love how they manage to always put a twist on every NBA series that matters. With that said, let's try to analyze what will come out of this great "good versus evil" series.

Let's take a look at the starting 5 match-ups:


At first glance it's quite intriguing. Both of these teams are in the Western Conference Finals for a reason: they have a great group of starters on both ends of the court. Both teams play great defense, at least when they want to, though I would give Denver the nod with overall defense right now. Offensively I think the Lakers are a bit better, but Denver is right there with them. The teams are pretty even, so let's take a look at the players and match-ups:

-Point-Guard: Derick Fisher vs. Chauncey Billups: Obviously Billups is going to do his thing in this series and wins this match-up. I do, however, think that Fisher will have better luck going against Chauncey than he did against lighting quick Brooks last series; physically speaking Fisher matches up well with Billups. If the Lakers and Fish can hold Billups to his season averages, around 20 points and 7 assists, they will have done a great job. On the other hand, if Billups can do what he did in their series with the Hornets, almost averaging 25 and 10, the Lakers could be in trouble. This is an important match-up.

-Shooting-Guard: Kobe Bryant vs. Dahntay Jones: Kobe is going to have a smile on his face when he pulls up for his next jumper and notices that Shane Battier's sweaty palm isn't an inch away from his eyes. Kobe is going to need to not only have a great series here, but he needs to play much more efficiently. If he has more games where he scores 28 points, while having to take 24 shots to get those points, it will be a long series for his team. Jones is a capable defender, though he's nothing like Battier or Artest, so I see Jones probably playing him physically while trying to get in Kobe's head; he will fight foul trouble all series as well. For the Lakers to win this series, Kobe needs to be much more productive than last series, and he has every oppurtunity to do so here.

-Small-Forward: Trevor Ariza vs. Carmelo Anthony: Melo is going to have to adjust to having an actual capable defender on him this series, but Melo is so versatile(read my previous blog in which one might think I have a crush on him) that Ariza won't be able to stop him, but he can help contain him. I think this might be the biggest match-up for both teams possibly; if Melo has another one of his Dallas series where he's averaging over 30+ points while doing so very efficiently, the Lakers might be packing their bags. If Ariza can manage to hold Melo to below 50% from the field, keep him off the free-throw line as much as possible, and can counter with 10 to 15 points himself, I think that could be the difference in the series. Ariza needs to step up his game in this series even more than the previous ones.

-Power-Forward: Pau Gasol vs. Kenyon Martin: Just like all the others, it's an intriguing match-up. Gasol is an All-Star big-man, but K-Mart is a skillfull, athletic, pesky player that can possibly cause problems for Gasol. If Gasol plays tough, establishes post position, and asserts himself he will have no problem shooting right over K-Mart like Dirk did in the last series. But if Gasol let's K-Mart pester him and push him away from the paint, we might read more headlines titled "Gasol: The Softy". I do think that Odom is going to play big minutes in this series, and I think an Odom/KMart match-up is just as intriguing, but we'll discuss that in the 6th man comparison. As for Gasol, he needs to show his toughness, like he did in the Utah series, and continue to have these 20/10 games we are accustomed to. If he under-performs, the team seems to follow suit.

-Center: Andrew Bynum vs. Nene Hilario: This is my favorite match-up. I'm totally psyched to watch this(fingers crossed). I've gotten into much discussion recently about the "Top 10 Centers" in the NBA; we compiled a list based off of 20-30 of us regular forum members. Nene was the consensus 5th best, while Bynum failed to make the list. Their season numbers are nearly identical: basically 14 points, 8 boards, 1-2 blocks. Anyway, this match-up is either going to be great, or be short. Nene plays tough, so Bynum needs to duplicate his Game 7 performance, playing smart while playing aggressive. Bynum is so important to the Lakers defense, they really need him out there for 20-30 minutes, especially in this series. He needs to stay away from his stupid fouls so he can have an impact, but I guess the same goes for Nene too. Bynum has a good 5 inches or so on Nene, so he should be able to get his offense going. Nene is quicker than Bynum, and just as strong, so he should be able to do his thing too. All in all, I just think it's a great match-up. Bynum can either step up and show that he's a top center in this league, or he can disappear and let Nene dominate him. I prefer the first, and so does Phil Jackson.


-6th Man: These guys both play a HUGE part for their respective teams. I honestly think they might be the true "X-Factors" in this series. As important as I think the Ariza/Melo and Fish/Billups match-ups can be, I think these guys might be more important. Lamar brings such versatility to the Lakers as a team. He provides them with a little of everything, including energy and wins. We need the assertive, energetic Lamar this series; the one that takes, and makes, open threes, owns the glass, and looks to push the ball as the point-forward. If he shows up, the Nuggets have NOBODY to match-up with him. He's a match-up nightmare. Another match-up nightmare: JR Smith. This kid can shoot, but is also just a pure scorer. Not only is he one of the deadliest, quickest 3-point shooters in the league, but he has extreme athleticism and handles that allow him to get to the rim with ease. Kobe/Ariza can try to contain him, but even that is a stretch. This is where I see Vujacic becoming useless; he's the second unit SG, so he will be matched up with JR quite a bit. As a result, I imagine that Phil will start bringing Shannon Brown in as the backup SG, especially if Sasha isn't shooting at a high clip. If JR manages to have any more 20 point games in 25 minutes off the bench, George Karl and the Nuggets will be more than satisfied. Lamar and JR really can change the outcome of the game when they step on the court off the bench. Let's see who's more assertive; I'm sure the result will follow.

-Bench: So both teams have great starting 5's, and both having amazing 6th men. So accordingly, both teams have great benches too. The Lakers bench has struggled all playoffs, and if that doesn't change I don't know if the Lakers can win this series. Farmar looked great towards the end of last series, and he needs to continue keeping his confidence up and play aggressive. Vujacic is unpredictable; he needs to wash his hair, and his mind, and just start shooting like he used to. Walton has been Mr. Average, so hopefully he can start hitting some shots and contributing like he did in the Utah series. Brown might get good minutes this series as well, so he needs to duplicate that Utah series as well. Denver basically has an 8 man rotation: the 6th man JR, and the other 6th man Chris Andersen, along with Anthony Carter. Andersen is a big game-changer, especially at home, and any game that he stays out of foul trouble is a game that Denver will compete. He needs to stay on the floor, block shots, and just bring that energy he always does. Carter is a capable backup PG, and he's played some great ball so far. He can be an offensive liability, so he needs to continue hitting his open shots to keep the defense honest. All in all I think both benches, OUTSIDE of their 6th man, are important, but not as important as others might think. The bench needs to perform well, don't get me wrong, but the difference in this series will most likely be pertaining to the best 6 players on each team.

Conclusion: Who really knows. I laugh after saying this, and we all know it's the truth, but I will take a well educated guess. So when it's all said and done I take the Lakers. They are the more talented team, and they appear to dominate games that they show up for. I don't see them underestimating this Denver team, so they will show up with their A-game from the first tip. They have nobody to guard Kobe, while the Lakers have two capable defenders that will at least help contain Melo. Billups will do his thing, but so will Gasol. Bynum and Nene will bang inside all series. I keep coming back to Lamar Odom and JR Smith when I look for that "x-factor", and I think Odom is going to surprise us all.

Lakers in 6. But if I were to put money on it I might have to go with Lakers in 7.

"Let's Melo Things Down"

The spotlight of the media has been focused on the Denver Nuggets the past month, and in the center of that spotlight stands Carmelo Anthony. The past few years it seems he managed to somehow go from an overrated talent to an underrated franchise player. Weird how that happens these days. Three years ago people said he was young, raw, and had a poor attitude while making playoff runs and losing in the opening rounds every year. Now, the story is a bit different.

When people talk about that amazing draft-class of 2003 it seems that Dwayne Wade, and of course Lebron James, are the two players involved in the discussion. This previous summer I even noticed that Chris Bosh, who was also drafted in 2003, was coming up in discussion as a legit franchise guy more than Melo was. Amazing how we can so quickly dismiss players, and it's even more impressive how those players come storming back.

Coming into the 2008-09 season Carmelo was a known star. But with that, teams would scheme around him, knowing he was an offensive force that had a somewhat poor shot selection and jacked up tons of shots, was a mediocre passer, and more importantly a poor defender. He was never at the level a franchise player should be. While he had 3 seasons in a row of 25 or more points per game(one with 28.9), he never really had a complete game, and more importantly never seemed to play within a system and make those around him better.

Steps in Chauncey Billups. Attained at the beginning of the season, he came over and instantly impacted the entire culture of this Denver franchise. He is the savvy veteran leader that they've longed for the past few years. The team responded quickly to his mindset and team-play style, on both defense and offense, and as a result the Nuggets had their best season in the history of the Nuggets franchise. They clinched the 2nd seed in the West, and are currently playing the best basketball in the West, possibly in the NBA.

Going into the playoffs people, including myself, were still underrating both Melo and the Nuggets. After a quick, humiliating 5 game series in which Denver destroyed Chris Paul and his Hornets squad(including a record tying 56 point win), it was obvious that Denver was finally a contender, and Melo was their go-to guy. Then Dallas in round 2. Game 3 was questionable and could of changed the series, but let's not worry about that. Instead, we look and see that Denver completely dominated the first two games with Dallas, defensively scheming and executing extremely efficiently. Game 3 Melo and Denver showed they were clutch hitting a 3 to win the game in closing seconds. Game 4 was a hiccup like many teams have, though not a big one, and then Game 5 they entirely dominated all game, showing they are the better team without a doubt.

So let's Melo things down a bit. Denver is playing much better basketball than the Lakers(and Houston), and people are finally starting to respect that. If Denver faced the Lakers squad that has been playing the last few weeks, Denver would win that series in 5, maybe 6. This Denver team plays too well on both ends of the floor, and more importantly they show up night in, night out. Chauncey has this team mentally focused and is the conductor of this train, but Melo is the engine that drives this team to wins.

Melo's regular season was a bit up and down, but still ever impressive. His scoring dropped, and for some reason his percentages dropped a little too. But overall, we have seen his attitude and mindset change, and more importantly he plays for the team and to win games. He has shown games where he plays great defense; a great example was against Dallas he would match-up with Dirk and do a great job pestering Dirk on the post. Melo not only can score at will, but he can now create plays for other people, rebound better than most power-forwards, play very solid defense, and will take, and possibly make, any clutch shot necessary.

Then come the playoffs. It's only been 10 games for Melo and the Nuggets in the 2 rounds, but it's a great sample to see just how well Melo is playing, and explains why the Nuggets are at this level:

27.0 ppg 4.3 apg 6.4 rpg 2.0 spg 0.8 bpg 48%FG 45%3ptFG

That's what I call impressive. You can see that he not only is scoring and passing at an amazing rate, but look at his efficiency doing so. Nearly making half of his shots, and 45% of his threes. Simply phenomenal. You can't Melo things down much from there, he's just too damn good. Then you can see he's not only playing tough defense, both man and team D, but he has stats to prove it: two steals a game and one block a game. Pretty all-around perfect numbers for your franchise small-forward.

Now those are all things tangible. Yes I can rely on stats a little too much, but I just love my numbers. Mathematically Melo is playing the best ball of his playoff career, but more importantly we can just watch the kid play and concur with that statement. Watching this kid is a blast, as he might be the most versatile, pure scorer in the entire NBA. This kid has a more expansive offensive style than both Kobe and Lebron possibly. Melo's pure jump-shot from both 17 feet and 3pt land are better than both Kobe's and Lebron's. Melo has a better post-up game than Lebron; a better ability to get to the rim at will than Kobe. I am not saying he's a better player, because he's not, and probably not a better offensive player than either of those guys either; but like Charles Barkley said: "Melo is the best pure scorer in the NBA".

I concur. And as a Laker fan, I am scared. Well, I'm already scared that we are going into a Game 7 with the Rockets....but assuming we win that game(knock on wood) we are now going up against a Denver team playing the best team basketball of it's Melo years.

"Nostradamus: First-Round"

When the playoffs roll around it's always fun to join those brackets where you predict the winners of each round(and in how many games) and compete with the world. Of course, I am a basketball God, and many people have called me the "Nostradamus of the NBA". Wait, my mistake, they usually call me the "NostraDumbass of the NBA". Big difference. Either way, I make predictions and sometimes I get lucky.

Nostradumbass would spend more time writing, observing, and analyzing each matchup, but the playoffs start tomorrow and he is a perfectionist. Either he writes an entire report for each matchup(which takes hours for each one), or he goes with his genius gut that always gives him the correct answers. Simply put, Brandon Roy hit that amazing fadeaway buzzer-beating three-pointer in overtime against the Rockets earlier this season. This is a sign that the Blazers will beat the Rockets in clutch situations, and as a result the Blazers will win the series in 6 games. Nostradumbass ignores the statements of "the Blazers are too young and inexperienced" because he already knows how these young players will perform under pressure in clutch situations. This is all you need to know about Nostradumbass for now. So let's move on to the first round predictions:

WEST:

• Lakers vs Jazz: Lakers in 6(could be 5, but Jazz love their home-court)
• Nuggets vs Hornets: Hornets in 7(Chris Paul saves his best for the playoffs)
  
• Blazers vs Rockets: Blazers in 6(Portland loves home-court)
• Spurs vs Mavericks: Spurs in 7(as much as I like the Mavs, it's an odd year)

EAST

• Cavaliers vs. Pistons: Cavs in 5(I just don't see it for the Pistons)
• Celtics vs. Bulls: Celtics in 6(without KG this could be competitive)
• Magic vs Sixers: Magic in 6(Magic are still somehow sleepers; ECF)
  
• Hawks vs Heat: Heat in 7(great series, Wade will prevail)

There we have it. Notradumbass has struck again and will likely get a score of 100%. He is never wrong. He enjoys writing in 3rd person. He enjoys keeping it simple with his predictions. He has no reason to explain his answers, because he is the official "Nostradumbass of the NBA".

"Mavs vs Spurs"

I am done. I have vowed to no longer underrate this Dallas Mavericks team. All season long I have been talking with everyone about Dallas' downfall, how they would be "that team in the West to drop out of the playoff race", and all the other baseless things we said assuming Dallas is not the same team they once were. I know you thought the same things too when this season began. But no more. No more.

Dallas clinched the 6th seed last night with an entertaining win against the Rockets. Down by double-digits at one point they came chuggin' back to life like a freight train with Jason Kidd conducting it all, ended up winning by double-digits while Kidd managed to grab his 103rd career triple-double while Dirk had a nice 30 points and 15 boards. Dallas really made a emphatic point with this game, telling America that they are still a top team. They have great momentum going into the playoffs, and they have the clutch shooters to win.

With the regular season finally over, we can actually analyze the matchups for the first round. The Spurs also won a great fight against the Hornets last night; Finley hit a clutch 3 to push the game into overtime, and OT was dominated by Parker and Duncan. That's really all they need to be contenders: Tony Parker and Tim Duncan. The problem is Ginobli is gone, and they have no real 3rd option. Duncan and Parker are surrounded by good role players, but will that be enough?

So enough regular season talk, let's get to the matchup. The Spurs are the 3rd seed, and the Mavs are the 6th; thus homecourt obviously goes to the Spurs. This is the one series that really confuses me, and I think everyone. The 8 ESPN columnists split their votes 4-4 on who would win. So let's take a quick look at the rosters/matchups:

Dallas Mavericks
PG: Jason Kidd
SG: Antoine Wright
SF: Josh Howard
PF: Dirk Nowitzki
C: Eric Dampier
6th: Jason Terry(PG/SG)
Bench: Brandon Bass(PF); JJ Barea(PG); Ryan Hollins(C); James Singleton(PF/SF)
San Antonio
PG: Tony Parker
SG: Roger Mason
SF: Mike Finley
PF: Matt Bonner
C: Tim Duncan
6th: Ime Udoka
Bench: Drew Gooden(PF/C); George Hill(PG/SG); Bruce Bowen(SF/SG); Kurt Thomas(PF/C)

Looking at the matchups I have to give Dallas the advantage. Parker will obviously wreak havoc on the offensive end with Kidd/Terry guarding him most of the game, but both those players will be able to do their thing on offense too. Wright starts at SG most of the time for his defensive presence, but Jason Terry and Kidd are the back-court for this team a majority of the time so I will give the nod to Jason Terry outplaying Roger Mason; Terry is just the better pure scorer. Then at SF Howard is just a better all-around player and athlete than Finley. I think Howard is going to be the X-Factor in this series. If he plays like he has lately the Mavs are going to be scary. Dirk obviously has a big advanatage on Matt Bonner, and Duncan obviously has a huge advantage on Dampier too.

Both teams have mediocre benches; Ginobli really changes the structure of this team, and without him they are 2 stars surrounded by role players. This series is going to come down to the Spurs being able to stop the Mavs high octane offense. Can Popovich use his scheming to try and force the ball out of Dirks hands while maybe having Bowen shadow Jason Terry all over the court? Most of us have seen the drop off Bowen has displayed this year, but maybe they are just saving him for the playoffs like these smart coaches often do.

Better starting 5: Dallas
Better 6th man: Dallas
Better bench: Tied
Better go-to guys: Spurs
Better coach: Spurs

You be the judge. This is definitely the series I am looking forward to the most; moreso than the great Hawks/Heat matchup and the Blazers/Rockets matchup. I think this will be a 7 game series, and Dallas might steal this. Either way though, it should be a great series.

"The Curse of the Spurs"

Is it just me or do the Spurs just fly under the radar every season? I'm not only talking about the Spurs as a team either, but their players always go unnoticed and unappreciated for the most part as well. How many times have you had a conversation with someone about the Top10 players in the league and simply forgot to include Tim Duncan? I know I have, and the problem is that we tend to forget about them; I'm pretty sure most any real fan will agree Duncan is still a Top10 player, so it really is just a Curse of the Spurs: they've been so great and solid for such a long period of time now(over a decade) they we tend to simply undervalue them as a whole and their players go unappreciated for the most part. My subject for today is Tony Parker, a prime example of what I am talking about.

I'm trying to not base my entire discussions on stats these days, but I still have to at least use the core stats of players to satisfy my urges of being a stat-whore(a slut of stats basically....). Devin Harris might be the most talked about "young" player that has had a breakout season and is possibly going to win the Most Improves Player award. I'm not trying to discredit him to any degree, because he is a really solid, All-Star caliber point-guard, but when you take a look at what that kid(or should I say man) has done this season I can't help but wonder why Tony Parker isn't talked about just as much. I understand Harris deserves all his accolades as his increases are a bit larger from last season, though his actual production is IDENTICAL to his production last season(he's just getting 7 more minutes a game, which is 25% more play-time), but I won't get into that......but take a look yourself....his per-minute production isn't an improvement at all; but I am not arguing the Most Improved Player award here(I'll save that for another blog). The interesting thing with Parker is he is playing basically the same amount of minutes as the previous season, yet every single stat of his has jumped up a decent amount. Anyway, since Harris has become this "great future PG" I want to compare Tony Parker to him this season....

Per Game:

• Harris:---22.6ppg---7.0apg---3.3rpg---1.7spg---44%FG
• Parker:---21.9ppg---7.0apg---3.0rpg---1.0spg---50%FG

Per36:

• Harris:---22.2ppg--6.9apg---3.2rpg---1.7spg
• Parker:---23.1ppg---7.3apg---3.1rpg---1.0spg

PER:

• Harris: 23.0
• Parker: 22.9

So where's the love for my boy Tony Parker? His stats have increased in every single category for career best averages in points, assists, steals, 3pt-FG% and FG%. This guy is averaging over 20 points a game and 7 assists a game as the leader and point-guard of the greatest franchise in basketball for the last decade. His numbers are nearly identical to Devin Harris around the board. Then realize Parker plays less minutes than Harris, and then take a look at their FG%. Parker trumps Harris, and any PG for that matter, being able to make HALF of his shots for the entire season. Why don't people talk about Tony as the new "PG of the future"? How does a quick little midget like Tony accomplish such a feat? Aside from Steve Nash......I don't think any of the other great guards we talk about these days come close to making half of their shots. Moving on....

Now, Let's not forget his wife is 20 times hotter than anyone else(below); he gets a few more points for that in my book. He's the point-guard and new leader of the San Antonio Spurs who happen to be the second best team in the Western Conference, and of course we can't forget he was the 2007 NBA Finals MVP. Tony Parker has single-handedly carried the Spurs through their bouts with injury all year; he began the season with Ginobli out the first few games putting up insane numbers including a 55 point, 10 assist, 7 rebound effort against the Timberwolves. Recently he's picked up his play even more with Ginobli having been out for the last month or so by putting up great numbers and keeping this team atop the standings. While Tim Duncan has obviously played a vital role in all this, even he's admitted that Tony Parker drives this team and is without a doubt their MVP this year. While Parker is not going to be in the discussion for league MVP(at least not while Duncan is on his team) I do think he's spot on about Parker being the engine and heart that drives this team on a nightly basis. So where's the love for Tony?

People also seem to forget Tony Parker is only 26 years old. That's not a typo; he's twenty-six years old. That's the main reason I wanted to compare him to Devin Harris. People seem to think Parker's around 30 years of age because of Duncan and Ginobli's age, as well as his long tenure in the league. I often forget Parker came to the Spurs from France at the age of 18, and I know many other fans do the same thing. Everyone talks about Devin Harris as this new "PG of the future", yet Parker is never mentioned in those same talks. Every day they discuss how Chris Paul and Deron Williams are the future guards of this league(which is obviously true), but this season the other relatively young guards having break-out seasons are surfacing in these talks all too often; "the future stud PG's of the NBA" like Devin Harris(25), Mo Williams(26), Jose Calderon(27), and Jameer Nelson(27). So why the hell is Tony Parker not in these talks at the age of 26 with his prime years ahead of him?

It's the curse of being a San Antonio Spur. Tony Parker might have been the least talked about player of the All-Star weekend; yes, that includes Nate Robinson and all the dunkers as well as the guys in the Rookie/Sophomore game. This Spurs franchise, and it's players, have somehow been able to continuously fly under the radar despite winning 4 NBA titles in the past decade. Tim Duncan is possibly the best power-forward to play the game(at least top5) yet people spend all their time discussing the other great players in the league. I guess it shouldn't be a surprise that Tony Parker continues to fly under the radar as he improves and becomes a clearcut stud. I guess when you've been in the league since 18 and already had 6 great seasons starting on the best franchise in the league winning 3 titles in that span fans and everyone else seem to simply take you for granted. I'm sure Tony doesn't mind either. He'll gladly let all the hype and fuss surround Devin Harris and the other young guards of the league right now. Once the playoffs come Tony Parker will show why he really is not only one of the best PG's in the league, but one of the best players in the league.... just like he always does.

So whenever I start taking Tony Parker for granted I just do a quick youtube search and always come to a great video. After scanning a few videos, I think this is a perfect example that will really do justice to my discussion, and in itself says so much more than I can every write in word. Remember, he's only 25 in this game last season; and not once do they say anything about his age.....not once.

"The Rockets: Contenders?"

The Houston Rockets have been making a very strong push in the Western Conference standings. As of late they have been on a nice streak winning 8 of their last 10 games(as well as 16 of their last 20) and finished the streak off off by beating the San Antonio Spurs yesterday morning. This puts them half a game ahead of the Spurs in the standings, which means they are now first in the South-West division; ahead of the Spurs, Hornets, and Mavericks. So at least for today, with the constantly swapping of seeds, when you take a look at the Western Conference standings the Rockets are now 2nd overall, half a game up on the Spurs. Not bad for a team missing their "franchise guy". This will be a rather detailed and extensive analysis of the Rockets as a team, and also an analysis of each individual player and what they've done for the team. So get your coffee, put on your reading glasses, and prepare to become aware of the new title contender in the Western Conference.

As I stated the Rockets have climbed the standings all the way to 2nd, and they've done all this without their known franchise player. So expanding on the situation: Tracy McGrady has been out for nearly 2 months now. One would think when a team's go-to guy goes down for the rest of the season that his team would likely suffer as a result. We really couldn't of been more wrong about that. The Rockets off-season move of trading for Ron Artest really makes them look quite genius today. Not only has he helped fill in as their other go-to guy(along with Yao) but he has actually been more productive to the team than T-Mac was this season. I want to stress "this season" when I discuss T-Mac being replaced. While my discussion will point out how the team has flourished with Artest as the new go-to guy and T-Mac was actually having a negative impact on the team, nowhere do I state, or even think, that the Rockets are better off without a healthy T-Mac.

Now that I've cleared that up, let's take a nice look at the Rockets entire season and try to find out what all the variables are for this team going from a decent playoff team to a possibly contender. I believe a main part of their success is related to Artest and T-Mac. T-Mac playing injured, with one leg and shoulder, was actually detrimental to the team this year. The Rockets and T-Mac made a very smart move shutting him down for the season(as he desperately need surgery and rehab) and having good ole' Ron-Ron fill in as the starting SG. To prove what I just stated here are some relatively simple stats that help back my statements up:

Rockets:___Off___Def___net(+/-)____rec___
T-Mac:_____97.4___94.2______2.8______18-17
Artest:-_____98.1___91.8 ______6.2______37-20

(Off = points per game)--(Def = points allowed per game)--
(net(+/-)= difference)--(rec=team's total record)--

I'm not going to delve quite as deeply into the numbers as I am known to do, but I want to at least spend a little time with these numbers. When you look at the total offense and defensive numbers for the Rockets(with T-Mac or with Artest) it's quite obvious that this season Ron-Ron has been the more productive and important player. Not only are the Rockets allowing 2.4 less points per game, but they are actually a better offensive team by nearly 1ppg as well. While these seem like relatively small numbers to the average person, anybody that knows the NBA and statistics realizes this is actually quite drastic difference. The net difference between the Rockets with Artest is a total of +3.4 points per game for the Rockets as a team. Just to point differential for a team in retrospect: the Atlanta Hawks have a +2.1 ppg differential while the Milwaukee Bucks have a -1.1 ppg differential on the season. That's a 3ppg difference in margin, yet the result is one team winning 50 games and making the playoffs as a 4 seed and the other team on track to come rather close to losing 50 games in a season. Not so small now is it?

Then there's the team's record that speaks for itself. With T-Mac they were barely a .500 team this season going 18-17; with Artest they've gone 37-20 and moved up to having the 2nd best record in the Western Conference. I'd dive a little deeper into it, but I think it's rather clear that Artest taking over for T-Mac has played a big role in the Rockets great surge the past few months. Artest's great individual and team defense is not the only thing that has made the Rockets more efficient as a whole, but his ability to score on offense without having to dominate the ball and stagnate the offense is just as beneficial. And let's not forget the great energy and personality that crazy Ron-Ron brings to the game every night. He's can be such a force on both ends of the floor; such a pesky defender that can really get under the skin of great opponents. It's quite obvious he doesn't enjoy losing any game at all and as a result plays with extreme heart and passion every game. I could go on about Artest's overall game and ecstatic personality, but if you just watch this guy play you know he's a top competitor in the league. I wish more people could forget about his shenanigans as a Pacer and realize what a great player Ron-Ron really is; he's proved it this season and I'll leave it on that note.

Then there's the other franchise, go-to player in Yao Ming who's playing as solid as he ever has. He's simply a nightly guarantee of his usual 20 points, 10 rebounds, and 2 blocks every night, but more importantly he has really flourished in their adjusted offense with Artest as his sidekick and has mastered the art of drawing double-teams and kicking it out to the open man. The offense is more often ran through Yao than it ever has been, and he's adjusted seemlessly. I think the doubts people displayed in the past, including Rocket fans, are slowly fading as Yao proves he can stay healthy for an entire season and contribute consistently as well; he's a legitimate guy to build around.

Then there's the trade-deadline move Daryl Morey and the Rockets made that I felt was an under-the-radar, yet genius move. Getting rid of the chucker veteran Rafer Alston(allowing their young PG Brooks to fill in) while getting another solid young PG in return was perfect for them. Aaron Brooks and Kyle Lowry have become a great two-headed monster at the PG spot.

• Aaron Brooks: His great all-around play this season as the backup allowed the Rockets to move Alston and his contract. At a first glance it becomes quite apparent Brooks is possibly the quickest player in the league. His first step and penetration is similar to that of Tony Parker, but he also has a great pull-up elbow jumper and shoots over 36% from 3pt territory. He's proven to not only be a solid starting PG that can score, but he's shown during quite a few games that he can be counted on to take some big shots and make some big-time plays. It's not that often a second year point-guard has the confidence to step-up and make the game winning play. He's quickly become the Rockets PG of the future and they have put much trust in the kid. He's averaging 14 points and 4 assists in the month of March while playing less than 30 minutes a game.
• Kyle Lowry: Simply put, he was a great pickup. Memphis gave 20 year old Mike Conley the golden key to running the Grizzlies, even though Lowry was actually just as productive(if not moreso) than Conley for the Griz. Lowry adapted to the Rockets offense immediately and fits in just fine. He comes in off the bench with great energy on both ends which fits the Rockets mold perfectly. He's a bigger sized guard that brings a different style than Brooks. His big, tough body allow him to penetrate and finish quite effectively, and while his jumper needs some work it's not too bad eitehr. He's putting up around 8 points and 4 assists a game for the Rockets in about 23 minutes a game. Not a bad PG to have coming off the bench.

Then you have a role-player like Luis Scola who has flourished next to Yao and really understands how to play off of him on the offensive end. Last season Scola found his niche in their offense towards the end of the season and really started to put up good numbers. This season he's averaging 12.8ppg and 8.8rpg; he's become the grinding, tough PF that complements Yao perfectly. He is the definition of "hustle player" and brings his energy to the floor night in and night out. He has also shown he's quite capable of not only knocking down the 15 to 18 foor mid-range jumper but also has a nice little on-the-block post game as well. At a glance he appears rather slow, but after watching him play you can't help but be impressed with his amazingly quick and precise foot-work that somehow allow him to get off good, open shots on much taller and bigger defenders. He's really helped this team with their toughness inside on both ends of the floor.

I saved my favorite Rockets starter for last: Shane Battier has possibly become the most well known role-player in the NBA. He is known as the perfect "glue-guy" to have on your team. He plays some of the best individual man defense in the league, always looks to make the extra pass and help keep the offense going, and always shoots near 40% from 3pt land to stretch the defense. He's essentially the perfect guy to have next to a solid SG(like T-Mac or Artest) and on the perimeter helping surround a great big-man(Yao). Look at his stat-line and you will not be impressed one bit; watch a game against the Lakers, Cavs, or Heat and you will understand just how valueable this guy really is.

You'll notice I've put 6 players in bold font. Basically, these are the starters for the Rockets. I included Kyle Lowry because I think along with Aaron Brooks they essentially make that real starting PG. They essentially split the minutes nearly right down the middle, so it's hard to say one if more important than the other. As much credit as I've given to Artest for filling in, to Yao for playing conistently great all season, to the two young guards for becoming great contributors, and to Scola and Battier for being the perfect role-players to have with this line-up; as much credit as I give them they are not the sole reason for the Rockets success and status. We have to remember the other players on the team; the players that get much less recognition and credit. These are often the guys that can really put a team over the top.

• PG: Aaron Brooks / Kyle Lowry
• SG: Ron Artest / Von Wafer
• SF: Shane Battier / Brent Barry
• PF: Luis Scola / Carl Landry
• C: Yao Ming / Dikembe Mutumbo
  

Look at the players not in bold: Von Wafer, Brent Barry, Carl Landry, and Dikembe Mutumbo. These are the guys that get little respect(well maybe Mutumbo) but are a key part of the teams success. Von Wafer is having the best season of his career. He's become a spark scorer off the bench that they've needed for awhile now; averaging 10 points for the season in less than 20 minutes. Every good/great team needs a guy like Wafer that you can bring in off the bench; a guy that can go off for 20+ points on any given night. Then there's Carl Landry who is one of the better backup power-forwards in the league. He's averaging 9.3ppg and 5rpg in 20 minutes off the bench, but more importantly he allows Yao or Scola to rest while the team maintains it's productivity. He is currently injured(somehow shot in the leg randomly, but thankfully he will be okay) and Chuck Hayes has filled in nicely; another pretty solid PF that can defend and rebound.

The Rockets usually use an 8-man rotation for the most part; Wafer, Lowry, and Landry are used off the bench as the main guys. Artest's and Battier's versatility to play anywhere from really SG, to SF, and even PF against smaller line-ups allows Rick Adelman to usually have at least one of them in the game at all times with his rotation. This allows the older veterans like Dikembe and Barry to take some games off; and when they do play it's not big minutes. But come playoff time these savy veterans will prove to be much more useful. Barry is that knock-down 3pt shooter that instantly spreads offenses, and Mutumbo is one of the best shot-blockers to ever play the game. These guys are getting their rest so they can be ready and healthy to really contribute come a 7-game playoff series.

All in all this team has essentially become a new contender in the NBA. A month ago the discussion would include the Lakers, Celtics, Cavs, Magic, and Spurs. The past month the Jazz have gone up and down and have shown they are possibly legit contenders as well, but the Rockets are not possibly contenders anymore. They are contenders. As a team they have the kind of key players, rotation, and style of play that make a team a contender. They have a very efficient offense while controlling the pace of their games. They have a a stud inside(Yao), a stud on the perimeter(Artest), perfect role players that complement the team perfectly(Scola and Battier), and have a quality young PG duo that has become productive and solid(Brooks and Lowry), as well as having key bench players that keep the team at the same level of play when they come in(Wafer, Landry, Barry, Mutumbo). The Rockets are possibly the best defensive team in the entire league; Artest and Battier is easily the best combination of perimeter defenders on any team in the NBA, and the team as a whole feeds off this and plays great team defense.

Defense wins championships....that's what they always say, right?
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Here's a rather entertaining video of good ole' Ron-Ron having some fun in their previous game against the Lakers. I figure if you read this entire article you deserve a quality laugh. Enjoy:

"The Undervalued Bird"

Once in awhile I feel like dedicating an article to one specific player. I've done this a few times, but never have I done it on a "role player" type of guy. I'm giving a round-house kick to that wall; columnists need to write more about the glue-guys and the role-players that make championship teams what they are. Honestly, where would the Celtics of been last year if it weren't for guys like Eddie House and PJ Brown, and of course James Posey; coming in off the bench and literally winning games for them(PJ Brown in game 7 against the Cavs; Posey in nearly every game). These are usually players whom are overlooked by the casual fan, and it's a shame the modern day columnist doesn't talk about them more. Sure, they went through their James Posey phase last year because of the key role he played in that entire playoffs(and finals), but it's all too soon forgotten.

In the modern times where the discussion and spotlight revolves around the star players and players who shoot those game-winning shots, we sometimes forget about the players that even give them the opportunity. We must remember it wouldn't be a one point game with 11 seconds left(allowing a star to take a hero game-winning shot) if it weren't for these great role-players that do all their dirty work within the confines of the game; rarely is this ever a last-second isolation or 3-point shot that gives a team a one point win(though it does happen). But you get my point, and I think the stars ego are getting to the point where they don't thank or appreciate the other guys, the role players, that allowed him to make that game-winning shot and have ESPN replay it all night.

This is a tribute to the role-players out there this year that have helped lift their teams to better records and playoff pushes behind the scenes; the ones that get little credit. Some teams have made trades and attained another "star" level player like the Heat with O'Neal and Denver with Billups; players that overshadow any of the new and/or key role-players that are actually just as important as these new stars. Many of the teams have more than one role-player that have helped in their teams push to the playoffs, so this is a salute to all of you role-players and glue-guys out there. Guys like Nicholas Batum of the TrailBlazers, Ronald Murray of the Hawks, Scola and Battier of the Rockets, Millisap of the Jazz, Mario Chalmers and Udonis Haslem of the Heat, and the list goes on and on...


Then there's guys like Chris "Birdman" Andersen(above) of the Denver Nuggets. The undervalued, almost unappreciated, backup big-man of the Nuggets. The guy that is currently 2nd in the league in blocks(but barely playing 20 minutes). The guy that comes in and contests and alters nearly every shot. The guy that brings 110% of his game night in, night out. The guy that never complains about only playing 12 minutes on a night his coach feels his starting bigs are playing great. The guy that thinks team-first rather than me-first.

A quick glance at his per game stats won't blow you away necessarily:

Per Game: 6.1ppg__5.9rpg__2.3bpg__19.6mpg

But maybe I spoke too soon. His per game stats still impress the hell out of me when I see that last little statistic: 19.6mpg. This guy is 2nd(second) in the league in blocks per game ahead of guys like Marcus Camby and Jermaine O'Neal who play nearly twice the minutes that the Birdman Plays. But let's take a deeper look into his stats so we can all realize just how damn solid and productive he's been for the Denver Nuggets this season. As I usually do, let's take a look at his Per36. If you aren't familiar with Per36: it's a stat that simply adjusts a players production to 36 minutes. It's a great way to compare players in a much more objective fashion. Simply put, it's going to show a players production as a starter getting starter minutes. While fatigue is not a variable, most trends have shown that a players per minute stats(like these) are pretty consistent as their play-time increases. Anyway, here's a look at Birdman's:

Per36: 11.3ppg__10.8rpg__1spg__4.3bpg

I think it's pretty safe to say he'd likely lead the league in blocks if he were getting anywhere near 30 minutes or so a game, let alone 36 minutes. While you need to consider how many fouls he commits, you'll see I included that stat as well; while 4.5fpg is somwhat high it would not really impact his inability to stay aggressive on the defensive end if he played 36 minutes. Simply put: if he started at power-forward or center for any team he would be a guaranteed double/double guy and possibly lead the league in blocks as well. Not too shabby.

PER: 18.0

A quick lesson(in case you're not familiar): PER is a rating system that John Hollinger created that is an extremely complex equation that basically takes all aspects of the game(points, steals, assists, blocks, FG%, turnovers, etc), weights them accordingly, adjusts it to average pace, and includes a multitude of things; the result is one number that can basically sum up a players efficiency and produciton when he's on the court. 15.0 is the average for all NBA players. The equation is not a clear-cut tool that you should use to solely judge a player, but it is a surprisingly effective and accurate statistic that has become increasingly popular because of it's results. For example, the top 5 PER's this season, in order: Lebron, Wade, Paul, Howard, Kobe. I think that pretty much speaks for itself as being a reliable equation and tool.

So applying our knowledge of that to Chris Andersen; he is much, much more efficient than an average backup player in the NBA. There are only 25 players above a 20.0 PER, and only about 50 who are above an 18.0 PER; while it's not a fact that Chris Andersen is a top 50 player I think I could put forth a pretty valid argument that he is very plausibly one of the top 50 most efficient and productive players in the league.

So while the entire world thinks all of Denver's success this season is based solely on the Nuggets getting Chauncey Billups in a trade sending Allen Iverson to Detroit, you can know that players like Chris Andersen play a huge role in their success as well. There's obviously a reason they lost Marcus Camby(NBA's leading shot blocker last season) and somehow managed to increase their defense and block more shots this season. While there's no doubt that Billup's leadership and court savvy have helped this team, he's not some savior to the Nuggets that all your sports buddies claim. Next time it's brought up you should probably give a few remarks to counter their oblivious statement:

1-Chris Andersen leads the league in blocks and has made up for Camby's departure on the defensive end; the Birdman blocks nearly 10% of all shots while he's on the floor.
2-Let's not forget the Nuggets did win 50 games last season(w/Iverson) and are on pace to only win a few games more; so somehow the Birdman has made up for Camby being gone....and I guess Billups just made up for Iverson leaving. Wait..... I thought that Billups replacing Iverson made this team that much better? Isn't that what everyone is saying? Then why are they only going to win a couple more games then last season?
3-Their are other variables(like Nene, JR Smith, and Kleiza stepping up too), but this article is about Chris "Birdman" Andersen.

He simply gives his team everything he has every minute he's on the court. Then of course there's the things that don't show up in stats. His energy and hustle that other members of his team feed off of and result in the entire team's defense picking it up and playing harder. The fact that he not only blocks 10% of ALL shots while he's on the court, but the fact that he alters and contests an even higher percentage than that. I've watched him literally change an opposing team's offensive mindset when he stepped on the court, blocked 2 shots in 3 possessions, and then altered about 2 more shots causing them to miss.

Basically, the Birdman is like an Energizer battery: when Denver's starters are getting tired they bring in Birdman to recharge the team and provide the energy they need on both ends; he keeps going and going and going. The Energizer Birdman never stops.