"Tonight's the Night"

That's right. Tonight's the night. It's the night that this series becomes a legit series or is declared over. It's sometimes amazing how quickly people will dismiss a team. Sure, as a Laker fan I have been talking some serious ****. "The Magic are just not on their level", "Dwight Howard is more like Wonder Woman than Superman", etc, etc. But really, aside from Game 1's complete domination, this series isn't quite over yet. The Lakers did what they SHOULD of done: won the first 2 games at home. Sure it puts them in the driver's seat, but it's not like it's over yet.

Let's remember back to the 2006 finals. Dallas goes up 2-0 on the Heat. They lose the series 4-2. While the Lakers aren't that Dalals team, and I'm not saying this Orlando team has anyone like Dwayne Wade or Shaq, but this team is far from giving up. Hell, even last years finals was somewhat similar. The Lakers lost to Boston in a somewhat disappointing fashion in both games at Boston. Down 2-0 they came home, won game 3, SHOULD have won game 4 ( yes, I still have nightmares from being at that game), and then won game 5. Series at 3-2 going back to Boston. Now while they could of been up 3-2 going back to the East coast, it was still a competitive series.

Don't expect anything less out of this Orlando squad. They have shown throughout the playoffs that they can bounce back, and we're talking with a vengeance here. Multiple times the suffered bad, double digit losses (and a Lebron James buzzer-beater that could literally shatter a teams morale), and the following games came out fired up, hot, and executing on both ends. Expect nothing less.

I honestly, at this point, expected no different. Orlando looked like the newly acclimated "best team in the East", and played like it as well. They appeared quite jittery in Game 1, possibly intimidated by the situation. Game 2 looked a lot different. Howard was still Wonder Woman, but Rashard Lewis was Superman and the rest of the team looked much better. I expect this team to continue that play on their home-court tonight. Great team's built like the Orlando Magic tend to hit their open 3's at home.

Of course, Dwight Howard might of left the kryptonite in Los Angeles as well. He could come out with a 30 point, 20 rebound performance to lead the way for Orlando. Van Gundy is a smart, savvy coach that knows how to counter, scheme, and execute. Expect no less here in the finals. This Orlando team is far from accepting a defeat to the best team in the NBA. Orlando has too much talent, too much offense, and too much fire to expect any different.

Am I saying they will win tonight? Possibly. As a Laker fan, I tend to impulsively think otherwise, but then I put on that little rational cap. For us Lakers to beat Orlando tonight, we are going to have to play like we did in Game 1, if not better. Orlando is going to hit shots, get behind their home-crowd allowing their role players to get a bit more comfortable and step-up, and expect their stars to be more aggressive. That means the Lakers have to counter.

Kobe needs to show up and have a very productive, and efficient night. If he scores 30, it needs to be on 20 shots. If he scores 40, it needs to be on 25 shots. I think Kobe knows this is a game that can change the outlook of the series, and I predict he comes out firing on all cylinders. I do have this feeling that our role players(yes, including you "El Machino" who can't hit **** from anywhere on the court) might struggle a bit tonight. For us to win, not only does Kobe need to have a great game, but Gasol needs to establish himself inside like this is a brand new game. The inside/out is so important for the Lakers offense running at a high level. That means Bynum's post game needs to be working a bit as well. And of course, it wouldn't hurt if "El Machino" could get a mechanic out to work on him. It woulld be nice to see him show up someday.

Most important thing for the Lakers tonight: Defense. They need to play that aggressive, swarming, trapping defense we've seen them play off and on. They need to continue forcing rushed shots, turnovers, and convert those plays into easy baskets. I'd say if we can force 16 turnovers tonight and get some good fast-break points we are in the drivers seat. The Lakers need to harness all these things and execute it for 48 minutes. Any less and it's as good as Orlando's game tonight.

But now, with all that being said, here is what I predict as the outcome:

Lakers: 98 Orlando: 94

Kobe: 38 points, 8 assists, 6 rebounds, 2 steals, 1 block.

It's up to you God...........

"NBA Finals"

The time has finally come. All my past homerish and boastful statements of the LA Lakers just changed from homer statements to the discussion of an intelligent basketball fan. Seems to me that my prediction of Lakers over Denver in 6 games seemed about right, and I think everyone else agrees too. So now that I have annoyingly picked myself up and I now feel like I'm as smart as Bill Simmons, it's time to move on to the oh so intriguing NBA Finals.

ADAM MORRISON vs. JJ REDDICK: A BATTLE OF AGES!

As Bill Simmons put it(he's one of my favorite writers of all the internet), we have the battle of two of the possibly biggest busts to come out of the draft in recent years(and don't get me started on them being white). But I'll end this discussion quickly: Ammo, aka Morrison, wins this fight in 1 round with a knock-out. Morrison hasn't logged a single minute this entire playoffs while Reddick actually looked like a legit player in that Boston series. Ammo was also a top 5 pick in the NBA draft(#3 I believe), so he's the overwhelming winner here. Now to the serious matters inolving players that actually see the court on these teams.

To be honest, I must say this is the most confident I have been as a Laker fan the entire playoffs. After that Houston series I admit, I questioned them a bit, but the way they finished out that Denver series was all I needed to see. Basically from the last minutes of quarter 3 in Game 5 through the entire Game 6 at Denver, the LA Lakers looked like that dominant team we were so accustomed to watching all season. Just in time too.... thank God.

The Magic are still in a similar spot though. They pulled a similar stint; Orlando was considered a "good" team at the start of Game 6 at Boston. Once they started playing some serious ball, somewhere in that game they transformed themselves into a legit contender. They won Game 6, then went on to beat Boston in Game 7 AT BOSTON. That's amazing, with or without KG. Then they completely handled the Cavs(like I thought, though I didn't blog about that) with Orlando's forwards causing some serious trouble(like I thought as well). Damn, I really should of wrote a blog on that since I could be taking tons of credit for it....

So how can I be so confident the Lakers will be able to prevail here? How can my prediction, yet again, be the Lakers in 6? It's simple really: the role players are starting to actually contribute, they match-up quit well, and then there's this guy on our team.... I forget... that's right, I think he's number 24. That sound right?


Turk won't have the pleasure of 6'2" Delonte West guarding them. Shard Lewis won't have the privlage of camping out on defense with Ben Wallace or Andy Verajao roaming around doing nothing. Someone has to guard Kobe, and while Pietrus did a nice job on Lebron(limiting him to what, 40ppg?), Kobe is a whole different force to stop. Then of course we have our only real weakness of the Lakers, our PG rotation and starting PG, but Rafer Alston isn't going to really cause any problems for them, not at all. Then there's the fact that the Lakers actually have 3 or 4 bench players that can contribute while the Magic have 1, maybe 2. Dwight Howard is their only real match-up advantage, and while it's a big one, it's not enough.

So yes, the Lakers will win this series in 6 games. Why 6? Well, Orlando plays a very unique style of basketball. One that has them shooting 20-30 3pt shots a game. Believe it or not, when you have amazing shooters surrounding a beast inside, those shots tend to fall in some games. Especially when the guys shooting it are all 40%+ 3pt shooters like Shard, Pietrus, Lee, and Turk. So I am counting on them making those shots at a high clip for 2 games. It could be 3, it could be 1, but allowing 2 games is all I am doing.

I just think Lewis will have serious trouble guarding both Pau and Odom; he won't be resting on defense anymore. I think Ariza will have a great series on both ends of the floor matched-up with Turk. Bynum will use his fouls on Dwight, but Dwight will have a great series. The PG's will be mediocre on both sides, and the bench for the Lakers stands out a bit more than the Magic. Kobe will do his thing, and I honestly believe he will silence the critics that tout he never has his "A-game" in the Finals. He'll shoot 50% averaging 27/6/5 or around there, and it will allow him to escape the gloomy shadows of never winning a ring whilst being the best player on that team.

I have another little theory too, though it's a little one for a reason. Remember how we began the pre-season with Lamar starting at SF with Gasol/Bynum at the PF/C spots. It wasn't very successful with most teams, so it was basically dismissed entirely all season; I'm not sure I've seen it since. But I see these matchups in this series, and I keep thinking: "Why not bring that lineup back?". Now we shouldn't start with it, but I want to see it implemented a little, but ONLY if Gasol causes enough problems with Shard guarding him. If so, I think Odom could defiitely get away with playing SF on Turk, a guy that is even laterally slower than LO himself. Then I would move Ariza to SG(he's shown he's more than capable to do so, especially when it's Lee/Pietrus at the SG spot). Last, but most importantly, is Kobe at the PG spot. This Orlando team isn't going to cause much problems with Rafer at point; sometimes they even run with Lee at PG, which makes even more sense for Kobe to enjoy some PG time. Orlando doesn't have amazing perimeter defenders, they aren't going to run some high-pressure full-court press(tm), and the Lakers will have no problem running with this set, not on either end. Hell, we could leave Kobe and Ariza at SG/SF and let Lamar run the point. I think he could just roam off of Alston on defense effectively enough it might work.

My point is simple: the Lakers cause more matchup problems than Dwight Howard does. The Lakers have countless options with their lineups and schemes. With Orlando you know what you're going to get. A high pick-n-roll with Turk/Howard at the top of the key; a low post with Dwight Howard to either draw a double and hit a shooter or do his thing inside. That's pretty much it. Of course, they also jack-up a lot of quick three's as well. It's rather simple.

The Lakers are a bit more complex. While the triangle is somewhat simple(though it has this perception of complexity), the Lakers have quite a few options on offense: high post triangle; post up Gasol OR Bynum OR Odom; Kobe side-post triangle; or just penetrate and kick like the Magic, run some pick-n-rolls, or just let Kobe take over and go anywhere on the court he wants to, and that does include the basket. The Magic do have Dwight Howard, which can be a problem, but I don't think it's enough. Especially when their perimeter defenders aren't amazing and allow tons of penetration, which obviously means Howard will commit fouls as the playoffs have shown.

And of course, Kobe is hungrier than he's been in awhile. Last year left a sour taste in his mouth, and he's not settling for anything less than winning the Finals MVP and winning in a solid fashion. I think we will see a very unique Kobe this series. I don't think he has to score 40 points in any game, and I don't know if he will. I think we might see the 25-30 point Kobe that picks his spots. The one that draws defenses to allow him to pass to an open cutter or shooter and get 5-10 assists. The one that plays some really tight defense. The one that trusts his teammates, and makes the team better(see Game 6). And of course, the one that takes over in the last 5 or so minutes of the game and leads the Lakers to victory.

And this is why the Lakers will win the series in 6 games. That's right. The official Nostradumbass of the NBA(shamefully that's myself) is not claiming, but stating the Lakers WILL win this series in 6 games. Oh how shiny that trophy will look with Pau and Kobe holding it.

(officially knocking on wood; you'll thank me for it)