"NBA Finals"

The time has finally come. All my past homerish and boastful statements of the LA Lakers just changed from homer statements to the discussion of an intelligent basketball fan. Seems to me that my prediction of Lakers over Denver in 6 games seemed about right, and I think everyone else agrees too. So now that I have annoyingly picked myself up and I now feel like I'm as smart as Bill Simmons, it's time to move on to the oh so intriguing NBA Finals.

ADAM MORRISON vs. JJ REDDICK: A BATTLE OF AGES!

As Bill Simmons put it(he's one of my favorite writers of all the internet), we have the battle of two of the possibly biggest busts to come out of the draft in recent years(and don't get me started on them being white). But I'll end this discussion quickly: Ammo, aka Morrison, wins this fight in 1 round with a knock-out. Morrison hasn't logged a single minute this entire playoffs while Reddick actually looked like a legit player in that Boston series. Ammo was also a top 5 pick in the NBA draft(#3 I believe), so he's the overwhelming winner here. Now to the serious matters inolving players that actually see the court on these teams.

To be honest, I must say this is the most confident I have been as a Laker fan the entire playoffs. After that Houston series I admit, I questioned them a bit, but the way they finished out that Denver series was all I needed to see. Basically from the last minutes of quarter 3 in Game 5 through the entire Game 6 at Denver, the LA Lakers looked like that dominant team we were so accustomed to watching all season. Just in time too.... thank God.

The Magic are still in a similar spot though. They pulled a similar stint; Orlando was considered a "good" team at the start of Game 6 at Boston. Once they started playing some serious ball, somewhere in that game they transformed themselves into a legit contender. They won Game 6, then went on to beat Boston in Game 7 AT BOSTON. That's amazing, with or without KG. Then they completely handled the Cavs(like I thought, though I didn't blog about that) with Orlando's forwards causing some serious trouble(like I thought as well). Damn, I really should of wrote a blog on that since I could be taking tons of credit for it....

So how can I be so confident the Lakers will be able to prevail here? How can my prediction, yet again, be the Lakers in 6? It's simple really: the role players are starting to actually contribute, they match-up quit well, and then there's this guy on our team.... I forget... that's right, I think he's number 24. That sound right?


Turk won't have the pleasure of 6'2" Delonte West guarding them. Shard Lewis won't have the privlage of camping out on defense with Ben Wallace or Andy Verajao roaming around doing nothing. Someone has to guard Kobe, and while Pietrus did a nice job on Lebron(limiting him to what, 40ppg?), Kobe is a whole different force to stop. Then of course we have our only real weakness of the Lakers, our PG rotation and starting PG, but Rafer Alston isn't going to really cause any problems for them, not at all. Then there's the fact that the Lakers actually have 3 or 4 bench players that can contribute while the Magic have 1, maybe 2. Dwight Howard is their only real match-up advantage, and while it's a big one, it's not enough.

So yes, the Lakers will win this series in 6 games. Why 6? Well, Orlando plays a very unique style of basketball. One that has them shooting 20-30 3pt shots a game. Believe it or not, when you have amazing shooters surrounding a beast inside, those shots tend to fall in some games. Especially when the guys shooting it are all 40%+ 3pt shooters like Shard, Pietrus, Lee, and Turk. So I am counting on them making those shots at a high clip for 2 games. It could be 3, it could be 1, but allowing 2 games is all I am doing.

I just think Lewis will have serious trouble guarding both Pau and Odom; he won't be resting on defense anymore. I think Ariza will have a great series on both ends of the floor matched-up with Turk. Bynum will use his fouls on Dwight, but Dwight will have a great series. The PG's will be mediocre on both sides, and the bench for the Lakers stands out a bit more than the Magic. Kobe will do his thing, and I honestly believe he will silence the critics that tout he never has his "A-game" in the Finals. He'll shoot 50% averaging 27/6/5 or around there, and it will allow him to escape the gloomy shadows of never winning a ring whilst being the best player on that team.

I have another little theory too, though it's a little one for a reason. Remember how we began the pre-season with Lamar starting at SF with Gasol/Bynum at the PF/C spots. It wasn't very successful with most teams, so it was basically dismissed entirely all season; I'm not sure I've seen it since. But I see these matchups in this series, and I keep thinking: "Why not bring that lineup back?". Now we shouldn't start with it, but I want to see it implemented a little, but ONLY if Gasol causes enough problems with Shard guarding him. If so, I think Odom could defiitely get away with playing SF on Turk, a guy that is even laterally slower than LO himself. Then I would move Ariza to SG(he's shown he's more than capable to do so, especially when it's Lee/Pietrus at the SG spot). Last, but most importantly, is Kobe at the PG spot. This Orlando team isn't going to cause much problems with Rafer at point; sometimes they even run with Lee at PG, which makes even more sense for Kobe to enjoy some PG time. Orlando doesn't have amazing perimeter defenders, they aren't going to run some high-pressure full-court press(tm), and the Lakers will have no problem running with this set, not on either end. Hell, we could leave Kobe and Ariza at SG/SF and let Lamar run the point. I think he could just roam off of Alston on defense effectively enough it might work.

My point is simple: the Lakers cause more matchup problems than Dwight Howard does. The Lakers have countless options with their lineups and schemes. With Orlando you know what you're going to get. A high pick-n-roll with Turk/Howard at the top of the key; a low post with Dwight Howard to either draw a double and hit a shooter or do his thing inside. That's pretty much it. Of course, they also jack-up a lot of quick three's as well. It's rather simple.

The Lakers are a bit more complex. While the triangle is somewhat simple(though it has this perception of complexity), the Lakers have quite a few options on offense: high post triangle; post up Gasol OR Bynum OR Odom; Kobe side-post triangle; or just penetrate and kick like the Magic, run some pick-n-rolls, or just let Kobe take over and go anywhere on the court he wants to, and that does include the basket. The Magic do have Dwight Howard, which can be a problem, but I don't think it's enough. Especially when their perimeter defenders aren't amazing and allow tons of penetration, which obviously means Howard will commit fouls as the playoffs have shown.

And of course, Kobe is hungrier than he's been in awhile. Last year left a sour taste in his mouth, and he's not settling for anything less than winning the Finals MVP and winning in a solid fashion. I think we will see a very unique Kobe this series. I don't think he has to score 40 points in any game, and I don't know if he will. I think we might see the 25-30 point Kobe that picks his spots. The one that draws defenses to allow him to pass to an open cutter or shooter and get 5-10 assists. The one that plays some really tight defense. The one that trusts his teammates, and makes the team better(see Game 6). And of course, the one that takes over in the last 5 or so minutes of the game and leads the Lakers to victory.

And this is why the Lakers will win the series in 6 games. That's right. The official Nostradumbass of the NBA(shamefully that's myself) is not claiming, but stating the Lakers WILL win this series in 6 games. Oh how shiny that trophy will look with Pau and Kobe holding it.

(officially knocking on wood; you'll thank me for it)