"WCF: Lakers vs Nuggets"

Finally. The Lakers chose to show up Sunday in a dominating win to clinch their series with Houston in a "bi-polar fashion", as Kobe put it. So now we can finally look at the Western Conference Finals, and by that I mean without having to knock on wood after every sentence. Melo, Chauncey, and the Denver Nuggets have just been relaxing this past week; probably watching some ball, eating out at fancy resturaunts, and taking those mid-day naps. Kobe and the Lakers have been flying back and forth between LA and Houston, grinding out an unnecessary long series that is finally over.

So what now. We know that the new wave of media has labeled the Lakers as "arrogant" and I recall Kenny Smith saying "they don't deserve to be the champs". I agree, well, to some small degree, that the Lakers display of attempting to walk through the NBA playoffs without giving 100% effort does show a lack of respect to the opponents; it also shows that they are still a young team trying to figure out their identity with Bynum being integrated back in. The latter is what they forget to discuss, and instead they have created this whole idea that the Lakers are basically the "bad guys" and everybody will be rooting for the Nuggets in this series. This is likely true.

So it's the "good versus evil". The Holy and respectful people of Denver against the arrogant residents of Los Angeles, now the city of demons I guess. Carmelo is the good, Kobe the bad. You get my point. Gotta love how they manage to always put a twist on every NBA series that matters. With that said, let's try to analyze what will come out of this great "good versus evil" series.

Let's take a look at the starting 5 match-ups:


At first glance it's quite intriguing. Both of these teams are in the Western Conference Finals for a reason: they have a great group of starters on both ends of the court. Both teams play great defense, at least when they want to, though I would give Denver the nod with overall defense right now. Offensively I think the Lakers are a bit better, but Denver is right there with them. The teams are pretty even, so let's take a look at the players and match-ups:

-Point-Guard: Derick Fisher vs. Chauncey Billups: Obviously Billups is going to do his thing in this series and wins this match-up. I do, however, think that Fisher will have better luck going against Chauncey than he did against lighting quick Brooks last series; physically speaking Fisher matches up well with Billups. If the Lakers and Fish can hold Billups to his season averages, around 20 points and 7 assists, they will have done a great job. On the other hand, if Billups can do what he did in their series with the Hornets, almost averaging 25 and 10, the Lakers could be in trouble. This is an important match-up.

-Shooting-Guard: Kobe Bryant vs. Dahntay Jones: Kobe is going to have a smile on his face when he pulls up for his next jumper and notices that Shane Battier's sweaty palm isn't an inch away from his eyes. Kobe is going to need to not only have a great series here, but he needs to play much more efficiently. If he has more games where he scores 28 points, while having to take 24 shots to get those points, it will be a long series for his team. Jones is a capable defender, though he's nothing like Battier or Artest, so I see Jones probably playing him physically while trying to get in Kobe's head; he will fight foul trouble all series as well. For the Lakers to win this series, Kobe needs to be much more productive than last series, and he has every oppurtunity to do so here.

-Small-Forward: Trevor Ariza vs. Carmelo Anthony: Melo is going to have to adjust to having an actual capable defender on him this series, but Melo is so versatile(read my previous blog in which one might think I have a crush on him) that Ariza won't be able to stop him, but he can help contain him. I think this might be the biggest match-up for both teams possibly; if Melo has another one of his Dallas series where he's averaging over 30+ points while doing so very efficiently, the Lakers might be packing their bags. If Ariza can manage to hold Melo to below 50% from the field, keep him off the free-throw line as much as possible, and can counter with 10 to 15 points himself, I think that could be the difference in the series. Ariza needs to step up his game in this series even more than the previous ones.

-Power-Forward: Pau Gasol vs. Kenyon Martin: Just like all the others, it's an intriguing match-up. Gasol is an All-Star big-man, but K-Mart is a skillfull, athletic, pesky player that can possibly cause problems for Gasol. If Gasol plays tough, establishes post position, and asserts himself he will have no problem shooting right over K-Mart like Dirk did in the last series. But if Gasol let's K-Mart pester him and push him away from the paint, we might read more headlines titled "Gasol: The Softy". I do think that Odom is going to play big minutes in this series, and I think an Odom/KMart match-up is just as intriguing, but we'll discuss that in the 6th man comparison. As for Gasol, he needs to show his toughness, like he did in the Utah series, and continue to have these 20/10 games we are accustomed to. If he under-performs, the team seems to follow suit.

-Center: Andrew Bynum vs. Nene Hilario: This is my favorite match-up. I'm totally psyched to watch this(fingers crossed). I've gotten into much discussion recently about the "Top 10 Centers" in the NBA; we compiled a list based off of 20-30 of us regular forum members. Nene was the consensus 5th best, while Bynum failed to make the list. Their season numbers are nearly identical: basically 14 points, 8 boards, 1-2 blocks. Anyway, this match-up is either going to be great, or be short. Nene plays tough, so Bynum needs to duplicate his Game 7 performance, playing smart while playing aggressive. Bynum is so important to the Lakers defense, they really need him out there for 20-30 minutes, especially in this series. He needs to stay away from his stupid fouls so he can have an impact, but I guess the same goes for Nene too. Bynum has a good 5 inches or so on Nene, so he should be able to get his offense going. Nene is quicker than Bynum, and just as strong, so he should be able to do his thing too. All in all, I just think it's a great match-up. Bynum can either step up and show that he's a top center in this league, or he can disappear and let Nene dominate him. I prefer the first, and so does Phil Jackson.


-6th Man: These guys both play a HUGE part for their respective teams. I honestly think they might be the true "X-Factors" in this series. As important as I think the Ariza/Melo and Fish/Billups match-ups can be, I think these guys might be more important. Lamar brings such versatility to the Lakers as a team. He provides them with a little of everything, including energy and wins. We need the assertive, energetic Lamar this series; the one that takes, and makes, open threes, owns the glass, and looks to push the ball as the point-forward. If he shows up, the Nuggets have NOBODY to match-up with him. He's a match-up nightmare. Another match-up nightmare: JR Smith. This kid can shoot, but is also just a pure scorer. Not only is he one of the deadliest, quickest 3-point shooters in the league, but he has extreme athleticism and handles that allow him to get to the rim with ease. Kobe/Ariza can try to contain him, but even that is a stretch. This is where I see Vujacic becoming useless; he's the second unit SG, so he will be matched up with JR quite a bit. As a result, I imagine that Phil will start bringing Shannon Brown in as the backup SG, especially if Sasha isn't shooting at a high clip. If JR manages to have any more 20 point games in 25 minutes off the bench, George Karl and the Nuggets will be more than satisfied. Lamar and JR really can change the outcome of the game when they step on the court off the bench. Let's see who's more assertive; I'm sure the result will follow.

-Bench: So both teams have great starting 5's, and both having amazing 6th men. So accordingly, both teams have great benches too. The Lakers bench has struggled all playoffs, and if that doesn't change I don't know if the Lakers can win this series. Farmar looked great towards the end of last series, and he needs to continue keeping his confidence up and play aggressive. Vujacic is unpredictable; he needs to wash his hair, and his mind, and just start shooting like he used to. Walton has been Mr. Average, so hopefully he can start hitting some shots and contributing like he did in the Utah series. Brown might get good minutes this series as well, so he needs to duplicate that Utah series as well. Denver basically has an 8 man rotation: the 6th man JR, and the other 6th man Chris Andersen, along with Anthony Carter. Andersen is a big game-changer, especially at home, and any game that he stays out of foul trouble is a game that Denver will compete. He needs to stay on the floor, block shots, and just bring that energy he always does. Carter is a capable backup PG, and he's played some great ball so far. He can be an offensive liability, so he needs to continue hitting his open shots to keep the defense honest. All in all I think both benches, OUTSIDE of their 6th man, are important, but not as important as others might think. The bench needs to perform well, don't get me wrong, but the difference in this series will most likely be pertaining to the best 6 players on each team.

Conclusion: Who really knows. I laugh after saying this, and we all know it's the truth, but I will take a well educated guess. So when it's all said and done I take the Lakers. They are the more talented team, and they appear to dominate games that they show up for. I don't see them underestimating this Denver team, so they will show up with their A-game from the first tip. They have nobody to guard Kobe, while the Lakers have two capable defenders that will at least help contain Melo. Billups will do his thing, but so will Gasol. Bynum and Nene will bang inside all series. I keep coming back to Lamar Odom and JR Smith when I look for that "x-factor", and I think Odom is going to surprise us all.

Lakers in 6. But if I were to put money on it I might have to go with Lakers in 7.