"Lakers(1) VS Suns(3) - Are We Overlooking Something?"

    I wanted to write this before I left for the beautiful 2 hour drive (full of great downtown LA traffic) to Staples to watch Game 1 live!  My old man still get's some great hook-ups.  Anyways, back to my point: Are we overlooking something to do with the Suns?  Every single show I've watched on ESPN or NBATV of professional sports analysis, just like the radio stations, and everyone believe the Lakers will win it in "5 probably" or even "it could go 7, but that's only a great game 6 Suns win at home then the Lakers close them out".  "The Lakers size will just be too much for the Suns in the end".  How many times have we heard this stupid, simple half-observation.

    Why not: "The Lakers will win the series just because they have more talent overall. Period." But that could be an argument I guess (Kobe, Gasol, Odom, Artest, Bynum, Fisher, Brown to Nash, Amare, J-Rich, Grant Hill, Frye, Dragic).

    I still think the Lakers have this series (because Odom is going to show up and play a great all-around, consistent series not only scoring more but rebounding harder; Ron Artest will do a fine job guarding Jason Richardson who's been putting up All NBA Numbers for the playoffs... we'll see him revert to his 16ppg self; Gasol and Bynum will also be likely getting plenty of touches early in game and early each quarter).  But I am a natural skeptic, and with this confidence that the Suns have no chance winning a 7 game series with the Lakers and, well, I don't like it, haha, I must say... Not that they believe this, but that they are so damn confident.  

    The Suns SWEPT the HEALTHY San Antonio Spurs with a 30ppg Manu Ginobli; 20/10 rock Duncan; stud PG Tony Parker; and even guys like Richard Jefferson and George Hill and Antonio McDyess.  Personally, I thought the Spurs posed a much bigger threat to the Lakers, but obviously for the Suns to run over them so badly we need to see why and how they are playing so damn efficient.  I mean it's just Nash running with the ball and the wings breaking half the time; the other half is a pick and roll literally.... they run it from so many spots on the court though, and it can end up in an Amare dunk or a Frye 3pter.  They'll set a pick n roll just to through a corner pass for 3.  

     That's right.  The 3pt line.  The Suns shot the best 3pt% out of ALL 30 teams this season.  With guys like Nash, Dudley, Frye, Dragic, Barbosa, Richardson, all 40%ISH 3pt shooters... your team is never dead.  Never.  They can still score 10 points in a heartbeat.  But what's the counter?  The Lakers had the best defensive 3pt% in ALL the NBA?  Well that is a HUGE little tid-bit of information.  The Lakers need to stay with the shooters, like they're used to, and contest those 3's.  Let the Suns jackup 3's at a 25% clip.... works for us right?

     There is also the fact the the Suns bench is better than the Lakers overall; it's an objective fact.  They provide more points, rebounding, assists, etc.  Of course we have to mention the breakout little 2nd year Goran Dragic who literally took over Game 3 I believe with the Spurs; he scored like 30 in the game, mostly the 2nd half, and literally controlled the game, his team, and the win.  I'm not sure we'll see that again either.  Has Popovich heard of hard fouls?  You can foul the kid... just so you know next time Popo.

Suns Bench:  Goran Dragic, Channing Frye, Jared Dudley, Leandro Barbosa, Louis Amundson

     note:  the thing is these players each know their exact role and they execute it to plan; Also   

               assuming Robin Lopez return means he starts against the Gasol / Bynum duo.

Lakers Bench:  Lamar Odom, Shannon Brown, Jordan Farmar, Luke Walton, Josh Powell

     note:  Lamar and Shannon have been good(with some bad), while overall as a whole the bench has been             

                no force or comfort for Kobe sitting on the bench.

     It's clear that the Suns have the superior bench when you go 5 deep.  It's really much more simple than we think: If Odom doesn't show up (and Bynum is still slowed up), while maybe Frye and Dudley do show up, this is going to be one damn close game.  I mean who's to say the Suns don't run that big-ole Laker starting lineup into the ground.  If Bynum is really having issues, he needs to take care of it.  Let Odom just start at PF... it's almost a better matchup.  

     You know who I think is going to have a decent series for us Lakers off the bench?  Well yes Odom, I said that.  But I think Luke Walton will get some time (especially matched up with Dudley I bet) and Luke is a very heady player which is key in playoff situations.  He's a great passer, can hit the open mid-range and 3-pointer; he even has a mini-post game.  With the Suns always so small, I think the Lakers and Phil can and will try some unique options with his rotation, rosters, lineups, etc.  Put Odom at Center for heaven's sake; he can guard Frye, not Lopez though (that's where Bynum OR Gasol needs to step in).  If Bynum is really hurting and ends up out, Gasol, when he moves to center, needs to be much more aggressive on both ends of the floor.  We should be seeing some blocked shots in this series.... because you know the Lakers will fall into the "fast-paced Suns style" at times and then snap out of it....  how quickly they can adjust or execute their plan and control  the better.

    But the benches overall give the Suns an edge.  Lately when Nash has had to go get his rest, Goran Dragic has stepped in and done a really fantastic job playing 100% speed, Nash's style a little, but with his own flare.  The kid has a bright future if he continues to be mentored by Nash.  Then Dudley is one of those pretty damn consistent shooters, while Frye can be streaky, just like Barbosa who might play 10 minutes one night with 6 points and 20 minutes the next night with 20 points, haha.  Between Dragic's and Barbosa's explosiveness and Dudley and Frye's shooting..... you've got a legit 2nd unit.  Keep 1 starter in there, like Grant Hill, and your good..Then   Amundson just does his thing: comes in and riles things up, blocks a shot, not a whole lot else.

     The Lakers on the other hand have had a struggling time with the bench.  For now Odom is the 6th man so he's a bench guy, and the best one at that (also the huge x-factor in this game/series).  If Odom wants to get angry and play some ball, he can literally almost match Stoudemires efficiency.  May not score as much, but he can be a triple double threat any game.  Then Shannon Brown has been decent, though streaky.  Farmar even worse, but OK.  Walton does alright I guess.... he's just not getting much of a chance.  Powell and Mbenga rarely see the court in real close games too.  So its like a 7 man rotation, 8 if Farmar can get his head out of his ass and grow some balls.  He's so much better than he's playing.

     The thing is Steve Nash is possible the best PG in the NBA (I know there are 6 or so PG's you can see this about; but look where Nash has his team... Rondo too, hah).  Fish will do his best on Nash, but I guarantee you Phil is thinking "let Nash score to beat us; why put pressure or doubles that result in Nash assists and Suns treys".  Exactly.  Let Nash be Lebron.  Artest and Kobe can take J-Rich out of the game (who's averaged over 25ppg in the playoffs.... +10 regular season numbers).

     But really, a bench is a bench.  In these playoffs Kobe, Artest, Gasol, Amare, Nash, all these great players will play a 40+ minute game if necessary.  So really... a huge bench is not as important as some might try to point out (unless you are often in foul trouble or something similar).  The Suns bench won't be "their special answer to winning the series".  The Suns need to run their offense as efficient as they have been, but also keep their defense up so Gasol, Bynum, Odom can't get tons of points in the paint.  And I guess J-Rich is the new Raja Bell?  I think Kobe likes that.

    SO yes, I do think the Lakers win this in 5, if not then 6.  But I do have a bit more skepticism in my gut.  This Suns team is doing something right... playing as a team.  Let's hope the Lakers do so.  

WELL I AM OUT TO GO TO GAME 1.  I PREDICT THE LAKERS +12, give or take 4 either way, hahha.  A semi-comfortable win,

"I Can Sense The Spurs Next!"

Currently, in this Utah/Laker series it's pretty much known the Lakers will win this series in what is most likely 6 games; 25% chance it goes either 5 games or 7; 10% chance it goes 4.  The Jazz are nothing without Andrei Kirilenko and Mehmet Okur... that's their 3rd and 4th best player after Deron and Boozer.  But what comes AFTER the Jazz series is what scares me....

The Spurs are a legit contender this year.  Not only did they add Antonio McDyess (solid veteran savvy) to put next to Duncan, they also have rookie surprise Dejuan Blair who is nuts and brings it every day; speaking of bringing it, this kid named George Hill is no force to be forgotten.  Their best lineups are when they have Tony Parker at PG, Hill at SG, Manu at SF, Duncan at PF, and then McDyess or Blair or even Bonner at Center.  

Good thing I didn't forget about Richard Jefferson, their nice little pickup that allows them to play in many different ways; I've even seen them go with him at PF essentially with Duncan at center and Parker, Hill, Ginobli on the court too.  It worked a bit against the Mavericks as they matched RJ up with Dirk; knowing smaller/longer players with speed cause Dirk the most problems on offense.  That entire schematic was done well most the games and went unnoticed to most.

They had a very unique rotation last series and to end the season: George hill starts at PG while Bogans starts at SG I believe and Tony Parker comes in off the bench AS WELL AS Manu Ginobli; dual 6th man of the year?  Hah.  That's some serious firepower considering you already have Duncan's 20 points, Hill's 15, RJ's 12, and McDyess' 8-10 points in that starting lineup (Bogans around 5ppg now).

But then look at what you are bringing off the bench:  Tony Parker (All-Star Caliber top5 PG) and Manu Ginobli (a top5 SG when healthy and best 6th man in the league).  

Look at how the Spurs so EASILY managed to knock off the Mavericks (yes, the stacked/expensive Mavs with Caron Butler and Brandon Haywood to clone Dampier... and oh yea they had Kidd and Marion too, while of course Dirk did his own thing.  The Spurs treated that like the regular season and the players didn't even get and "wear and tear". 

-Check these out:

- Spurs Round 1 (6 games) Player Stat's (Complete Playoff Stats to date)

• Manu Ginobli:  19.0 Ppg, 5.0 Apg, 3.7 Rpg. 2.3 Spg, 10 Treys; 33.2 Mpg
• Tim Duncan:  18.2 Ppg, 9.5 Rpg, 2.7 Apg, 1.0 Bpg, 50% Fg; 37.2 Mpg
• Tony Parker:  15.8 Ppg, 5.7 Apg, 3.7 Rpg, 1.0 Spg, 47% Fg; 31.5 Mpg

That's your Big 3 getting legit "rest" for it being playoff time.  Duncan did somewhat carry that series while Ginobli and Parker helped close it, with help.  But just you can look and see how important those 3 are.  Manu is playing like the second best SG in the NBA, jsut behind Kobe, and he's still fresh.  Those Big3 are used to playing 40-44 minutes in playoff games, so this is legit. 

And as you can see, if the series gets close and the 3 players have to log 40 minutes a game they will be scoring 70+ points combined possibly.  

• George Hill:  14.3 Ppg, 3.8 Rpg, 1.2 Spg, 50% FG & 50%-3pt;  34.8 Mpg

That's the surprising 4th productive player.  Richard Jefferson is starting and averaging 9.2 ppg and 4.2 rpg in 32.7 minutes a game; not exactly productive you'd think.  But RJ has really turned into this intangible type of player, sort of like Battier.  

As a Laker fan, I just think this to myself... "What Spurs players will likely have at least one 20+ppg in the series....

• Ginobli, Duncan, Parker, Jefferson, Hill, and then McDyess could go 20/10 one night and Roger Mason could be hitting his shots and put up 20 on any given night.  While only the Big 3 average near 20 Ppg, their are plenty of others that can have one.  Even Dejuan Blair and Matt Boner have had 20+point games.

So why am I praising this Spurs team?  I'm not quite sure, but I have this feeling they take the Suns, AGAIN, in 6, and then the Lakers and Spurs go 7 baby.  I said at the start of the season "If the spurs were Healthy come playoff time, and the McDyess + RJ thing worked out and gels, they will be at the top".

So here we are Laker fans.  Playing Utah.... who has little chance... and then taking on this crazy San Antonio Spurs team (likely).  Can anyone really stop Duncan's 20/10's?  And I don't want to bring up the PG matchup where Tony Parker will eat us up for lunch at times; this is where Farmar and Brown need to come in and step it up some more:  Brown will have to guard Hill a lot I bet, with Fisher and Farmar on Parker the most (but maybe even Kobe or Artest).

Check back later for my analysis on what the match-ups would/will be and what the Lakers need to do to win a 7 game series with a healthy Spurs roster.

( Yes, I did write this like it was fact that the Suns had zero chance to win )

PS: The Spurs won a title in 1999, 2003, 2005, 2007, and 2010 seems like a way to cap the decade eh.

PSS: Remember what Duncan did the last time the Suns tried to test them?