"WCF: Lakers vs Nuggets"

Finally. The Lakers chose to show up Sunday in a dominating win to clinch their series with Houston in a "bi-polar fashion", as Kobe put it. So now we can finally look at the Western Conference Finals, and by that I mean without having to knock on wood after every sentence. Melo, Chauncey, and the Denver Nuggets have just been relaxing this past week; probably watching some ball, eating out at fancy resturaunts, and taking those mid-day naps. Kobe and the Lakers have been flying back and forth between LA and Houston, grinding out an unnecessary long series that is finally over.

So what now. We know that the new wave of media has labeled the Lakers as "arrogant" and I recall Kenny Smith saying "they don't deserve to be the champs". I agree, well, to some small degree, that the Lakers display of attempting to walk through the NBA playoffs without giving 100% effort does show a lack of respect to the opponents; it also shows that they are still a young team trying to figure out their identity with Bynum being integrated back in. The latter is what they forget to discuss, and instead they have created this whole idea that the Lakers are basically the "bad guys" and everybody will be rooting for the Nuggets in this series. This is likely true.

So it's the "good versus evil". The Holy and respectful people of Denver against the arrogant residents of Los Angeles, now the city of demons I guess. Carmelo is the good, Kobe the bad. You get my point. Gotta love how they manage to always put a twist on every NBA series that matters. With that said, let's try to analyze what will come out of this great "good versus evil" series.

Let's take a look at the starting 5 match-ups:


At first glance it's quite intriguing. Both of these teams are in the Western Conference Finals for a reason: they have a great group of starters on both ends of the court. Both teams play great defense, at least when they want to, though I would give Denver the nod with overall defense right now. Offensively I think the Lakers are a bit better, but Denver is right there with them. The teams are pretty even, so let's take a look at the players and match-ups:

-Point-Guard: Derick Fisher vs. Chauncey Billups: Obviously Billups is going to do his thing in this series and wins this match-up. I do, however, think that Fisher will have better luck going against Chauncey than he did against lighting quick Brooks last series; physically speaking Fisher matches up well with Billups. If the Lakers and Fish can hold Billups to his season averages, around 20 points and 7 assists, they will have done a great job. On the other hand, if Billups can do what he did in their series with the Hornets, almost averaging 25 and 10, the Lakers could be in trouble. This is an important match-up.

-Shooting-Guard: Kobe Bryant vs. Dahntay Jones: Kobe is going to have a smile on his face when he pulls up for his next jumper and notices that Shane Battier's sweaty palm isn't an inch away from his eyes. Kobe is going to need to not only have a great series here, but he needs to play much more efficiently. If he has more games where he scores 28 points, while having to take 24 shots to get those points, it will be a long series for his team. Jones is a capable defender, though he's nothing like Battier or Artest, so I see Jones probably playing him physically while trying to get in Kobe's head; he will fight foul trouble all series as well. For the Lakers to win this series, Kobe needs to be much more productive than last series, and he has every oppurtunity to do so here.

-Small-Forward: Trevor Ariza vs. Carmelo Anthony: Melo is going to have to adjust to having an actual capable defender on him this series, but Melo is so versatile(read my previous blog in which one might think I have a crush on him) that Ariza won't be able to stop him, but he can help contain him. I think this might be the biggest match-up for both teams possibly; if Melo has another one of his Dallas series where he's averaging over 30+ points while doing so very efficiently, the Lakers might be packing their bags. If Ariza can manage to hold Melo to below 50% from the field, keep him off the free-throw line as much as possible, and can counter with 10 to 15 points himself, I think that could be the difference in the series. Ariza needs to step up his game in this series even more than the previous ones.

-Power-Forward: Pau Gasol vs. Kenyon Martin: Just like all the others, it's an intriguing match-up. Gasol is an All-Star big-man, but K-Mart is a skillfull, athletic, pesky player that can possibly cause problems for Gasol. If Gasol plays tough, establishes post position, and asserts himself he will have no problem shooting right over K-Mart like Dirk did in the last series. But if Gasol let's K-Mart pester him and push him away from the paint, we might read more headlines titled "Gasol: The Softy". I do think that Odom is going to play big minutes in this series, and I think an Odom/KMart match-up is just as intriguing, but we'll discuss that in the 6th man comparison. As for Gasol, he needs to show his toughness, like he did in the Utah series, and continue to have these 20/10 games we are accustomed to. If he under-performs, the team seems to follow suit.

-Center: Andrew Bynum vs. Nene Hilario: This is my favorite match-up. I'm totally psyched to watch this(fingers crossed). I've gotten into much discussion recently about the "Top 10 Centers" in the NBA; we compiled a list based off of 20-30 of us regular forum members. Nene was the consensus 5th best, while Bynum failed to make the list. Their season numbers are nearly identical: basically 14 points, 8 boards, 1-2 blocks. Anyway, this match-up is either going to be great, or be short. Nene plays tough, so Bynum needs to duplicate his Game 7 performance, playing smart while playing aggressive. Bynum is so important to the Lakers defense, they really need him out there for 20-30 minutes, especially in this series. He needs to stay away from his stupid fouls so he can have an impact, but I guess the same goes for Nene too. Bynum has a good 5 inches or so on Nene, so he should be able to get his offense going. Nene is quicker than Bynum, and just as strong, so he should be able to do his thing too. All in all, I just think it's a great match-up. Bynum can either step up and show that he's a top center in this league, or he can disappear and let Nene dominate him. I prefer the first, and so does Phil Jackson.


-6th Man: These guys both play a HUGE part for their respective teams. I honestly think they might be the true "X-Factors" in this series. As important as I think the Ariza/Melo and Fish/Billups match-ups can be, I think these guys might be more important. Lamar brings such versatility to the Lakers as a team. He provides them with a little of everything, including energy and wins. We need the assertive, energetic Lamar this series; the one that takes, and makes, open threes, owns the glass, and looks to push the ball as the point-forward. If he shows up, the Nuggets have NOBODY to match-up with him. He's a match-up nightmare. Another match-up nightmare: JR Smith. This kid can shoot, but is also just a pure scorer. Not only is he one of the deadliest, quickest 3-point shooters in the league, but he has extreme athleticism and handles that allow him to get to the rim with ease. Kobe/Ariza can try to contain him, but even that is a stretch. This is where I see Vujacic becoming useless; he's the second unit SG, so he will be matched up with JR quite a bit. As a result, I imagine that Phil will start bringing Shannon Brown in as the backup SG, especially if Sasha isn't shooting at a high clip. If JR manages to have any more 20 point games in 25 minutes off the bench, George Karl and the Nuggets will be more than satisfied. Lamar and JR really can change the outcome of the game when they step on the court off the bench. Let's see who's more assertive; I'm sure the result will follow.

-Bench: So both teams have great starting 5's, and both having amazing 6th men. So accordingly, both teams have great benches too. The Lakers bench has struggled all playoffs, and if that doesn't change I don't know if the Lakers can win this series. Farmar looked great towards the end of last series, and he needs to continue keeping his confidence up and play aggressive. Vujacic is unpredictable; he needs to wash his hair, and his mind, and just start shooting like he used to. Walton has been Mr. Average, so hopefully he can start hitting some shots and contributing like he did in the Utah series. Brown might get good minutes this series as well, so he needs to duplicate that Utah series as well. Denver basically has an 8 man rotation: the 6th man JR, and the other 6th man Chris Andersen, along with Anthony Carter. Andersen is a big game-changer, especially at home, and any game that he stays out of foul trouble is a game that Denver will compete. He needs to stay on the floor, block shots, and just bring that energy he always does. Carter is a capable backup PG, and he's played some great ball so far. He can be an offensive liability, so he needs to continue hitting his open shots to keep the defense honest. All in all I think both benches, OUTSIDE of their 6th man, are important, but not as important as others might think. The bench needs to perform well, don't get me wrong, but the difference in this series will most likely be pertaining to the best 6 players on each team.

Conclusion: Who really knows. I laugh after saying this, and we all know it's the truth, but I will take a well educated guess. So when it's all said and done I take the Lakers. They are the more talented team, and they appear to dominate games that they show up for. I don't see them underestimating this Denver team, so they will show up with their A-game from the first tip. They have nobody to guard Kobe, while the Lakers have two capable defenders that will at least help contain Melo. Billups will do his thing, but so will Gasol. Bynum and Nene will bang inside all series. I keep coming back to Lamar Odom and JR Smith when I look for that "x-factor", and I think Odom is going to surprise us all.

Lakers in 6. But if I were to put money on it I might have to go with Lakers in 7.

"Let's Melo Things Down"

The spotlight of the media has been focused on the Denver Nuggets the past month, and in the center of that spotlight stands Carmelo Anthony. The past few years it seems he managed to somehow go from an overrated talent to an underrated franchise player. Weird how that happens these days. Three years ago people said he was young, raw, and had a poor attitude while making playoff runs and losing in the opening rounds every year. Now, the story is a bit different.

When people talk about that amazing draft-class of 2003 it seems that Dwayne Wade, and of course Lebron James, are the two players involved in the discussion. This previous summer I even noticed that Chris Bosh, who was also drafted in 2003, was coming up in discussion as a legit franchise guy more than Melo was. Amazing how we can so quickly dismiss players, and it's even more impressive how those players come storming back.

Coming into the 2008-09 season Carmelo was a known star. But with that, teams would scheme around him, knowing he was an offensive force that had a somewhat poor shot selection and jacked up tons of shots, was a mediocre passer, and more importantly a poor defender. He was never at the level a franchise player should be. While he had 3 seasons in a row of 25 or more points per game(one with 28.9), he never really had a complete game, and more importantly never seemed to play within a system and make those around him better.

Steps in Chauncey Billups. Attained at the beginning of the season, he came over and instantly impacted the entire culture of this Denver franchise. He is the savvy veteran leader that they've longed for the past few years. The team responded quickly to his mindset and team-play style, on both defense and offense, and as a result the Nuggets had their best season in the history of the Nuggets franchise. They clinched the 2nd seed in the West, and are currently playing the best basketball in the West, possibly in the NBA.

Going into the playoffs people, including myself, were still underrating both Melo and the Nuggets. After a quick, humiliating 5 game series in which Denver destroyed Chris Paul and his Hornets squad(including a record tying 56 point win), it was obvious that Denver was finally a contender, and Melo was their go-to guy. Then Dallas in round 2. Game 3 was questionable and could of changed the series, but let's not worry about that. Instead, we look and see that Denver completely dominated the first two games with Dallas, defensively scheming and executing extremely efficiently. Game 3 Melo and Denver showed they were clutch hitting a 3 to win the game in closing seconds. Game 4 was a hiccup like many teams have, though not a big one, and then Game 5 they entirely dominated all game, showing they are the better team without a doubt.

So let's Melo things down a bit. Denver is playing much better basketball than the Lakers(and Houston), and people are finally starting to respect that. If Denver faced the Lakers squad that has been playing the last few weeks, Denver would win that series in 5, maybe 6. This Denver team plays too well on both ends of the floor, and more importantly they show up night in, night out. Chauncey has this team mentally focused and is the conductor of this train, but Melo is the engine that drives this team to wins.

Melo's regular season was a bit up and down, but still ever impressive. His scoring dropped, and for some reason his percentages dropped a little too. But overall, we have seen his attitude and mindset change, and more importantly he plays for the team and to win games. He has shown games where he plays great defense; a great example was against Dallas he would match-up with Dirk and do a great job pestering Dirk on the post. Melo not only can score at will, but he can now create plays for other people, rebound better than most power-forwards, play very solid defense, and will take, and possibly make, any clutch shot necessary.

Then come the playoffs. It's only been 10 games for Melo and the Nuggets in the 2 rounds, but it's a great sample to see just how well Melo is playing, and explains why the Nuggets are at this level:

27.0 ppg 4.3 apg 6.4 rpg 2.0 spg 0.8 bpg 48%FG 45%3ptFG

That's what I call impressive. You can see that he not only is scoring and passing at an amazing rate, but look at his efficiency doing so. Nearly making half of his shots, and 45% of his threes. Simply phenomenal. You can't Melo things down much from there, he's just too damn good. Then you can see he's not only playing tough defense, both man and team D, but he has stats to prove it: two steals a game and one block a game. Pretty all-around perfect numbers for your franchise small-forward.

Now those are all things tangible. Yes I can rely on stats a little too much, but I just love my numbers. Mathematically Melo is playing the best ball of his playoff career, but more importantly we can just watch the kid play and concur with that statement. Watching this kid is a blast, as he might be the most versatile, pure scorer in the entire NBA. This kid has a more expansive offensive style than both Kobe and Lebron possibly. Melo's pure jump-shot from both 17 feet and 3pt land are better than both Kobe's and Lebron's. Melo has a better post-up game than Lebron; a better ability to get to the rim at will than Kobe. I am not saying he's a better player, because he's not, and probably not a better offensive player than either of those guys either; but like Charles Barkley said: "Melo is the best pure scorer in the NBA".

I concur. And as a Laker fan, I am scared. Well, I'm already scared that we are going into a Game 7 with the Rockets....but assuming we win that game(knock on wood) we are now going up against a Denver team playing the best team basketball of it's Melo years.