Monday, March 23, 2009

"The Rockets: Contenders?"

The Houston Rockets have been making a very strong push in the Western Conference standings. As of late they have been on a nice streak winning 8 of their last 10 games(as well as 16 of their last 20) and finished the streak off off by beating the San Antonio Spurs yesterday morning. This puts them half a game ahead of the Spurs in the standings, which means they are now first in the South-West division; ahead of the Spurs, Hornets, and Mavericks. So at least for today, with the constantly swapping of seeds, when you take a look at the Western Conference standings the Rockets are now 2nd overall, half a game up on the Spurs. Not bad for a team missing their "franchise guy". This will be a rather detailed and extensive analysis of the Rockets as a team, and also an analysis of each individual player and what they've done for the team. So get your coffee, put on your reading glasses, and prepare to become aware of the new title contender in the Western Conference.

As I stated the Rockets have climbed the standings all the way to 2nd, and they've done all this without their known franchise player. So expanding on the situation: Tracy McGrady has been out for nearly 2 months now. One would think when a team's go-to guy goes down for the rest of the season that his team would likely suffer as a result. We really couldn't of been more wrong about that. The Rockets off-season move of trading for Ron Artest really makes them look quite genius today. Not only has he helped fill in as their other go-to guy(along with Yao) but he has actually been more productive to the team than T-Mac was this season. I want to stress "this season" when I discuss T-Mac being replaced. While my discussion will point out how the team has flourished with Artest as the new go-to guy and T-Mac was actually having a negative impact on the team, nowhere do I state, or even think, that the Rockets are better off without a healthy T-Mac.

Now that I've cleared that up, let's take a nice look at the Rockets entire season and try to find out what all the variables are for this team going from a decent playoff team to a possibly contender. I believe a main part of their success is related to Artest and T-Mac. T-Mac playing injured, with one leg and shoulder, was actually detrimental to the team this year. The Rockets and T-Mac made a very smart move shutting him down for the season(as he desperately need surgery and rehab) and having good ole' Ron-Ron fill in as the starting SG. To prove what I just stated here are some relatively simple stats that help back my statements up:

Rockets:___Off___Def___net(+/-)____rec___
T-Mac:_____97.4___94.2______2.8______18-17
Artest:-_____98.1___91.8 ______6.2______37-20

(Off = points per game)--(Def = points allowed per game)--
(net(+/-)= difference)--(rec=team's total record)--

I'm not going to delve quite as deeply into the numbers as I am known to do, but I want to at least spend a little time with these numbers. When you look at the total offense and defensive numbers for the Rockets(with T-Mac or with Artest) it's quite obvious that this season Ron-Ron has been the more productive and important player. Not only are the Rockets allowing 2.4 less points per game, but they are actually a better offensive team by nearly 1ppg as well. While these seem like relatively small numbers to the average person, anybody that knows the NBA and statistics realizes this is actually quite drastic difference. The net difference between the Rockets with Artest is a total of +3.4 points per game for the Rockets as a team. Just to point differential for a team in retrospect: the Atlanta Hawks have a +2.1 ppg differential while the Milwaukee Bucks have a -1.1 ppg differential on the season. That's a 3ppg difference in margin, yet the result is one team winning 50 games and making the playoffs as a 4 seed and the other team on track to come rather close to losing 50 games in a season. Not so small now is it?

Then there's the team's record that speaks for itself. With T-Mac they were barely a .500 team this season going 18-17; with Artest they've gone 37-20 and moved up to having the 2nd best record in the Western Conference. I'd dive a little deeper into it, but I think it's rather clear that Artest taking over for T-Mac has played a big role in the Rockets great surge the past few months. Artest's great individual and team defense is not the only thing that has made the Rockets more efficient as a whole, but his ability to score on offense without having to dominate the ball and stagnate the offense is just as beneficial. And let's not forget the great energy and personality that crazy Ron-Ron brings to the game every night. He's can be such a force on both ends of the floor; such a pesky defender that can really get under the skin of great opponents. It's quite obvious he doesn't enjoy losing any game at all and as a result plays with extreme heart and passion every game. I could go on about Artest's overall game and ecstatic personality, but if you just watch this guy play you know he's a top competitor in the league. I wish more people could forget about his shenanigans as a Pacer and realize what a great player Ron-Ron really is; he's proved it this season and I'll leave it on that note.

Then there's the other franchise, go-to player in Yao Ming who's playing as solid as he ever has. He's simply a nightly guarantee of his usual 20 points, 10 rebounds, and 2 blocks every night, but more importantly he has really flourished in their adjusted offense with Artest as his sidekick and has mastered the art of drawing double-teams and kicking it out to the open man. The offense is more often ran through Yao than it ever has been, and he's adjusted seemlessly. I think the doubts people displayed in the past, including Rocket fans, are slowly fading as Yao proves he can stay healthy for an entire season and contribute consistently as well; he's a legitimate guy to build around.

Then there's the trade-deadline move Daryl Morey and the Rockets made that I felt was an under-the-radar, yet genius move. Getting rid of the chucker veteran Rafer Alston(allowing their young PG Brooks to fill in) while getting another solid young PG in return was perfect for them. Aaron Brooks and Kyle Lowry have become a great two-headed monster at the PG spot.

  • Aaron Brooks: His great all-around play this season as the backup allowed the Rockets to move Alston and his contract. At a first glance it becomes quite apparent Brooks is possibly the quickest player in the league. His first step and penetration is similar to that of Tony Parker, but he also has a great pull-up elbow jumper and shoots over 36% from 3pt territory. He's proven to not only be a solid starting PG that can score, but he's shown during quite a few games that he can be counted on to take some big shots and make some big-time plays. It's not that often a second year point-guard has the confidence to step-up and make the game winning play. He's quickly become the Rockets PG of the future and they have put much trust in the kid. He's averaging 14 points and 4 assists in the month of March while playing less than 30 minutes a game.
  • Kyle Lowry: Simply put, he was a great pickup. Memphis gave 20 year old Mike Conley the golden key to running the Grizzlies, even though Lowry was actually just as productive(if not moreso) than Conley for the Griz. Lowry adapted to the Rockets offense immediately and fits in just fine. He comes in off the bench with great energy on both ends which fits the Rockets mold perfectly. He's a bigger sized guard that brings a different style than Brooks. His big, tough body allow him to penetrate and finish quite effectively, and while his jumper needs some work it's not too bad eitehr. He's putting up around 8 points and 4 assists a game for the Rockets in about 23 minutes a game. Not a bad PG to have coming off the bench.


Then you have a role-player like Luis Scola who has flourished next to Yao and really understands how to play off of him on the offensive end. Last season Scola found his niche in their offense towards the end of the season and really started to put up good numbers. This season he's averaging 12.8ppg and 8.8rpg; he's become the grinding, tough PF that complements Yao perfectly. He is the definition of "hustle player" and brings his energy to the floor night in and night out. He has also shown he's quite capable of not only knocking down the 15 to 18 foor mid-range jumper but also has a nice little on-the-block post game as well. At a glance he appears rather slow, but after watching him play you can't help but be impressed with his amazingly quick and precise foot-work that somehow allow him to get off good, open shots on much taller and bigger defenders. He's really helped this team with their toughness inside on both ends of the floor.

I saved my favorite Rockets starter for last: Shane Battier has possibly become the most well known role-player in the NBA. He is known as the perfect "glue-guy" to have on your team. He plays some of the best individual man defense in the league, always looks to make the extra pass and help keep the offense going, and always shoots near 40% from 3pt land to stretch the defense. He's essentially the perfect guy to have next to a solid SG(like T-Mac or Artest) and on the perimeter helping surround a great big-man(Yao). Look at his stat-line and you will not be impressed one bit; watch a game against the Lakers, Cavs, or Heat and you will understand just how valueable this guy really is.

You'll notice I've put 6 players in bold font. Basically, these are the starters for the Rockets. I included Kyle Lowry because I think along with Aaron Brooks they essentially make that real starting PG. They essentially split the minutes nearly right down the middle, so it's hard to say one if more important than the other. As much credit as I've given to Artest for filling in, to Yao for playing conistently great all season, to the two young guards for becoming great contributors, and to Scola and Battier for being the perfect role-players to have with this line-up; as much credit as I give them they are not the sole reason for the Rockets success and status. We have to remember the other players on the team; the players that get much less recognition and credit. These are often the guys that can really put a team over the top.
  • PG: Aaron Brooks / Kyle Lowry
  • SG: Ron Artest / Von Wafer
  • SF: Shane Battier / Brent Barry
  • PF: Luis Scola / Carl Landry
  • C: Yao Ming / Dikembe Mutumbo
Look at the players not in bold: Von Wafer, Brent Barry, Carl Landry, and Dikembe Mutumbo. These are the guys that get little respect(well maybe Mutumbo) but are a key part of the teams success. Von Wafer is having the best season of his career. He's become a spark scorer off the bench that they've needed for awhile now; averaging 10 points for the season in less than 20 minutes. Every good/great team needs a guy like Wafer that you can bring in off the bench; a guy that can go off for 20+ points on any given night. Then there's Carl Landry who is one of the better backup power-forwards in the league. He's averaging 9.3ppg and 5rpg in 20 minutes off the bench, but more importantly he allows Yao or Scola to rest while the team maintains it's productivity. He is currently injured(somehow shot in the leg randomly, but thankfully he will be okay) and Chuck Hayes has filled in nicely; another pretty solid PF that can defend and rebound.

The Rockets usually use an 8-man rotation for the most part; Wafer, Lowry, and Landry are used off the bench as the main guys. Artest's and Battier's versatility to play anywhere from really SG, to SF, and even PF against smaller line-ups allows Rick Adelman to usually have at least one of them in the game at all times with his rotation. This allows the older veterans like Dikembe and Barry to take some games off; and when they do play it's not big minutes. But come playoff time these savy veterans will prove to be much more useful. Barry is that knock-down 3pt shooter that instantly spreads offenses, and Mutumbo is one of the best shot-blockers to ever play the game. These guys are getting their rest so they can be ready and healthy to really contribute come a 7-game playoff series.

All in all this team has essentially become a new contender in the NBA. A month ago the discussion would include the Lakers, Celtics, Cavs, Magic, and Spurs. The past month the Jazz have gone up and down and have shown they are possibly legit contenders as well, but the Rockets are not possibly contenders anymore. They are contenders. As a team they have the kind of key players, rotation, and style of play that make a team a contender. They have a very efficient offense while controlling the pace of their games. They have a a stud inside(Yao), a stud on the perimeter(Artest), perfect role players that complement the team perfectly(Scola and Battier), and have a quality young PG duo that has become productive and solid(Brooks and Lowry), as well as having key bench players that keep the team at the same level of play when they come in(Wafer, Landry, Barry, Mutumbo). The Rockets are possibly the best defensive team in the entire league; Artest and Battier is easily the best combination of perimeter defenders on any team in the NBA, and the team as a whole feeds off this and plays great team defense.

Defense wins championships....that's what they always say, right?
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Here's a rather entertaining video of good ole' Ron-Ron having some fun in their previous game against the Lakers. I figure if you read this entire article you deserve a quality laugh. Enjoy:

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