"Rookie of the Year: PER Style"

The Rookie of the Year(ROTY) award is one of the more interesting and discussed topics of the NBA each and every year. I find it more and more interesting as the season progresses and the rookie stats slowly change as each game is played. My intent with this blog is to show that there is no "clear-cut ROTY candidate" which is said all too often about Rose and Mayo. This draft class has slowly shown why they were considered one of the best draft classes in a long, long time(Hollinger has them as the most productive class of all time). Now PER is not a definitive stat to conclude something as fact; but it's a very reliable system that shows the efficiency and production of a player. We can see why some players per-game numbers are higher than others(minutes per game) among other variables(pace of team, percentages).

Player____________PER____mpg____
Kevin Love, Min.-------------18.00-------24.6
Greg Oden, Por.--------------17.78-------22.9
Brook Lopez, NJ.-------------17.47-------30.1
Marc Gasol, Mem.------------17.15-------30.5
Michael Beasley, Mia.-------16.08-------24.4
Russell Westbrook, OKC----15.83-------32.5
Derrick Rose, Chi.------------15.46-------36.7
R. Fernandez, Por.------------15.41-------25.6
Eric Gordon, LAC.------------15.17-------33.4
O.J. Mayo, Mem.-------------14.62-------37.8
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The numbers are quite surprising to me(I haven't been looking at the rookies comparisons with stats, PER, and Per36 that much lately. I know ROTY doesn't just take the most efficient or productive player according to PER or Per36 and deem him Rookie of the Year; that would take away from the award slightly. But like Hollinger has stated, it's usually a rookie that's in the Top 5 PER of all the rookies that ends up winning the rookie of the year; so why should this year be any different?

So why are Mayo and Rose always considered the leading candidates for ROTY? Basically because they play 38 and 37 minutes per game(which then make their per-game stats better)? I know that is definitely worth some points, and Rose being the leading PG on a playoff bound team gets him more points in my book as well; but as these other rookies have shown an uncanny ability to play at this NBA level and have increased their minutes and overall production, it's hard to say anybody is really in the lead right now. I honestly think the Per36 stat is a very useful stat as well, and while I am applying the PER stats for this blog I mention the Per36 quite often. It really is a great tool in measuring a players production(just like PER), and I really think Per36 is a better indicator of how productive a player really is(assuming they are playing more than 20 minutes per game). It shows what a player will do per minute, rather than an entire game. Trying to compare two players overall stats when one plays 30mpg and the other 40mpg can be a difficult task, so PER and Per36 are very, very useful for this.

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A somewhat in-depth breakdown of the top 10 rookie's(according to PER):

Kevin Love: PER-18.00(1st overall) 24.6mpg
Wow. Nobody probably saw that coming. Kevin Love, that "that white-boy who's got stumps for legs and will never amount to much in the NBA" kid that everybody thought was a joke when he was picked as the 5th player in the draft. Obviously all those "haters" were wrong in their assumption, and while Love is not a stud PF that will be one of your top options on offense, he has proven that he can be a very solid and productive player in this league. I guess it's not a huge surprise that his PER or Per36 numbers are so spectacular, as he has shown to be one of the most efficient rebounds in the game. He's also tough player on the offensive glass and gets a good amount of put backs, but he's also got a decent shot as well. His passing ability is great for a big as well(especially his full-court outlet passes). So he is leading the rookies in PER now(which is not an easy feat), and his role has increased with Al Jefferson going down. Loves minutes have slowly increased to about 25mpg with his increased role, and his numbers are still just as efficient. He's posting 10ppg and 9rpg in 25mpg on the season, so he's simply a guaranteed double/double guy with 30mpg. Not bad, not bad at all. Whether he's considered a top ROTY candidate is beyond me; being in Minnesota hurts him as well as his lack of total minutes. But as the season progresses and his MPG slowly climb, he could become a serious candidate, even with his defensive liabilities. I'm not sure he is a top candidate for the award yet, but if he continues to start and play at this high rate averaging 16/12 in 30 or so minutes a game then he could easily force his way into the top nominees by seasons end.

Greg Oden: PER-17.78(2nd overall) 22.9mpg
Personally, I don't consider Greg Oden to actually be in the running for ROTY. The injuries he's gone through this season have kept him from being healthy, and the lack of minutes(and total games) are variables that really hurt his chances of being considered. He has shown that he is extremely efficient and productive when he gets on the court and is somewhat healthy; the problem is it's such a rarity to see him do that. But you can't deny his numbers: 9ppg 7rpg and 1.2bpg, and remember that's in 22 minutes. His Per36 and PER are right with, or above, Brooke Lopez' numbers; but I definitely consider Brooke Lopez the front-runner in terms of rookie of the year(he's discussed next). Oden has shown why he was a top pick at times with his ability to block and alter a high percentage of shots, his ability to anchor a defense, his ability to rebound on both ends, and his ability to run the floor and finish at the rim with authority. I saw a few games where he was putting up close to 20/10 with 3 blocks a game, but that only lasted about 5 or so games because of his health. So while he will definitely become a force that nobody wants to match-up with down the road, right now he has only played in 46 games and only averaged 22mpg; thus I think he is taken out of the discussion.

Brooke Lopez: PER-17.47(3rd overall) 30.1mpg
I consider him the leading big-man in the ROTY race, yet even Hollinger dismisses him in his latest article. Lopez has posted great numbers this season(Per game and Per36) so while his per-game numbers stand alone as solid(12.6ppg 8rpg 1.9bpg), when you adjust them to Per36 it shows how effective on the court he really is. Lopez surprised a lot(I mean A LOT) of people this year; GM's, coaches, and fans have all been delightfully surprised with this kids ability to not only score, rebound and block shots(which he does at a great rate), but his athletic ability and versatility in running the floor and finishing on the break. He's a very fundamentally sound player as well; he has great foot-work in the post, he understand spacing and getting position, and he is very effective at setting screens and running the pick-and-roll. He has ckearky become the third piece for the Nets alongside Carter and Harris, and plays a big pole in their playoff push. I can't imagine him not being a top candidate for ROTY, but it seems he is still somewhat overlooked. He's easily the most valuable and deserving big-man for ROTY in my eyes, and I consider him to be in the top 5 players in the running for the ROTY, and deserves more attention when people talk about it.

Marc Gasol: PER-17.15(4th best) 30.5mpg
Another one of those unlikely rookies that most of us tend to overlook. He's been a consistently solid big-man all year, putting up solid all around per game numbers(12ppg, 7.6rpg 1,1bpg), and while those don't stand out as great ROTY numbers you have to consider he plays only 30 minutes per contest(so his PER and Per36 are great). Gasol is a solid all-around big-man that can score, rebound, block shots, and even rack up assists at a relatively high rate. He's already shown that he is one of the better passing bigf men in the league. Overall, he's just one of those solid big-guys that contributes on both ends of the floor. Mayo seems to steal all the rookie glory out of Memphis, but Gasol is proving to be as effective and efficient of a player. Whether or not Gasol is truly considered for ROTY is something I can't really judge, but I can say he deserves to be in the discussion. While I doubt he is considered with the top 5 candidates, I think he is not far behind, and could make a push for it with a few more of his special 20/10/3 games we've seen him have.

Michael Beasley: PER-16.08(5th best) 24.4mpg
He's kind of like Kevin Love; the low minute average will hurt him, but his overall per game stats are still solid, and because his role and minutes have gone up lately(since the JO trade) he has become a solid force as a rookie. He has an uncanny ability to score the basketball is a blast to watch. He can hit 3's, penetrate off the perimeter, even post-up. His deficiencies on defense go against him a little bit(like Love), but his numbers don't lie. If he played 36mpg he would bea 20ppg scorer, that's no lie, but an objective trend. If he continues this solid production with his role and minutes increased, all while helping Miami get into the playoffs as a 4seed, he should most definitely be considered. Currently I don't know if he is a top 5 candidate(mostly because of his lack of minutes and defense), but if he can get his minutes per game near 30 and still be as efficient as he's been, well, he can very possibly have a chance at winning the award. I don't personally see that happening, but you never know with Spoelstra and Beasley.

Russell Westbrook: PER-15.83(6th overall) 32.5mpg
He's done the exact opposite of Rose/Mayo. Russel started off the season slowly(stuck behind Earl Watson with PJ Carleisemo), but his numbers(per game) have increased every single month of this season; Westbrook has proven why he was taken so high in the draft. He is a very solid two-way player, known as a defender coming out, but I think he's surprised some people with his explosiveness on offense. He can create his own shot very well, can get to the rim at will, and has a decent mid-range game. He's actually eerily similar to Derrick Rose in many aspects of the game(just look how identical their Per36 numbers are). He is a very productive player who's only real downfall is his high turnover rate. He has shown he is capable of playing, and defending, both guard positions effectively, and just has a good feel for the game on both ends. , but being on a really bad team(like Mayo) is going to hurt them both a little bit I think, but not much. I think Westbrook is easily a top 5 ROTY candidate that has a great chance at winning it.

Derrick Rose: PER-15.46(7th overall) 36.7mpg
He's a stud and I believe the current favorite for the award; enough said. But his numbers have slowly faded as the season progressed. He started off the season with a bang, looking like he could possibly hold up 20ppg and 7apg numbers, which were a result of playing 40+mpg, but not just that(i don't know what exactly, maybe teams have tried adapting, or it's just the Bulls crowded back-court). But Rose's per game numbers are still really solid, but he does play 37mpg, so his Per36 numbers are basically his per game averages, which are very solid, don't get me wrong, but they don't stand out from the other top rookies either. The main thing with Rose is he is a leader; he is the starting PG that leads the team; a team that's possibly headed to the playoffs. He does have Gordon, Hinrich, and even Salmons that are all quality back-court players, so he is likely sacrificing some scoring to just get those guys more involved. I think Rose could average more assists, but I understand that Salmons and Gordon are both dribble heavy shooting guards that can make it hard to rack up assists. Now the things that we all know about Rose: he has great size and athleticism; he can get to the rim at will(he's mastered that floated); he is great at penetrating and creating for others; he's not a bad defender; and he's just an overall great talent that is a natural born leader. Whether Rose is the "shoe-in" for the award is beyond me; I do know that Rose is easily a top 5 ROTY candidate that has a great chance at winning it.

Rudy Fernandez: PER-15.41(8th overall) 25.6mpg
Talk about a dark-horse coming into the season. This kid was traded by the Suns to Portland for cash considerations, not a bad move by Portland. He has come over from Spain this year and instantly been an effective player on the court. He plays a great role off the bench for Portland, and is already one of the premiere 3-point shooters in the league. The great thing about Rudy is his energy, and while he can be considered as a 3-point specialist, he has a natural instinct for getting to the rim as well. He showed us in the All-Star Weekend dunk contest(and in the Olympics against over Superman) that he could jump with the best of them and throw down some pretty sick dunks. Rudy's numbers don't stand out as anything spectacular, but all season long he has gotten the job done very effectively, all while being efficient. I don't think he really has a chance at winning this award, but he deserves to be mentioned because he has contributed quite a bit more to Portland's success than people think. While Rudy is probably not a top 5 candidate for the award, he deserves some attention.

Eric Gordon: PER-15.17(9th overall) 33.4mpg
Yes he plays for the Clippers, I know, it hurts my eyes to watch Clipper games too(like their collapse to Cleveland the other night). But let's put that aside for one second; Gordon is slowly becoming a stud, just like these other rookies, and he's putting up a good amount of minutes like Lopez, Westbrook, Rose, and Mayo. So why is he never in the ROTY conversation? He's averaging close to 16ppg, and while his rebounding/assist numbers could be better(though they are similar to Mayo's) Gordon has shown he's a solid defender as well. He's a potent scorer, slasher, and a great 3-point shooter; just because he's on the Clippers doesn't mean we have to fully ignore the kid. I think he's shown why he was such a high lottery pick, and why he should be considered in the ROTY race. When you look at it from an efficiency/production perspective, Gordon is a very, almost eerily similar player to OJ Mayo. Just check out their Per36. Gordon is on the brink of being a top 5 candidate for this award, so if he can finish the season off strong he will likely be one of the players that will really have a chance at ROTY.

O.J. Mayo: PER-14.62(10th overall) 37.8mpg
Pretty astonishing that Mayo has the 10th overall PER. I really would of thought he was in the top 3 from looking at his per-game stats and just his overall game. I know PER isn't definitive of anything, but it really shows that Mayo is no more efficient than these other rookies; or it just shows how damn good this draft class really is(possibly the best ever in terms of production). Mayo leads the rookies in scoring at 18.8 points per contest, a comfortable 2ppg more than any other rookie, but also leads all rookies in minutes at nearly 38 minutes a contest as well. So looking at it in context his scoring is actually no more efficient(maybe even less) than players like Wesbtrook and Gordon who average around 16ppg and play far less minutes. But I don't want to spend all this time discrediting him either, because Mayo is definitely worth of a top nomination or even winning ROTY. He has proven to be a very capable scorer for Memphis all season; he is what we call a natural scorer: capable of shooting 3-pointers at a high clip(38%) but also has a very effective mid-range game, and a very effective slashing game. I do think his passing is very underwhelming, as he only averages 3 assists per game while playing 38 minutes and being a big part of creating Memphis' offense. As much as I criticize Mayo, it's only because he is such a solid player. He's a very solid all-around player, not a bad defender, and will be a great shooting-guard for years to come. Whether or not he's ever a star is to be determined; for now he's easily a top 5 ROTY candidate that has a great shot at winning it.
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Realize that even my opinion and perspective doesn't just look at the top 10 rankings of rookie PER's and assume the top 5 candidates are the players with the top 5 PER's, because that's obviously not at all what I have suggested. But the PER is a great way to get a little perspective on each players overall game, efficiency, and production, so to dismiss it as a worthwhile equation is absurd as well.

When determining the winner of the Rookie of the Year I think quite a few things should be analyzed when coming to a conclusion: Per game stats, Per36 stats, PER ratings, +/- of the players, and all the intangible things like leadership, defense, energy, etc. You obviously can't just look at the stats and give the award to the most attractive stat line averages, but I also think stats are a big part of sports and play a major factor in individual awards like ROTY.

I actually think it's very possible this season results in a TIE for Rookie of the Year, but I don't think it will be Mayo and Rose...........


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Sources:
(John Hollinger's latest Rookie Ratings with PER)

(Comparing the Per36 of Rose to Westbrook and Mayo to Gordon with Basketball Reference):