"Halfway Point: The East"

Now that most teams are right around or nearing 40 games played, I think it's finally time to do some analysis of the season so far. We can start to make more accurate post-season predictions based on how teams are doing, and I always try to wait until at least this point to do so. I really get frustrated while reading somebody write or blog 12 games into the season and drawing conclusions that: "Atlanta is the best team in the East" and "San Antonio is done and won't even make the playoffs". Honestly, during the first month of the season I think we all read about the Hawks success and Spurs failure daily. How many times have you talked to some ignorant fan thinking they can draw conclusions from the first 12 or so games of the season? Yet, it seems every year these same fans impulsively think and talk the same way. Teams need time to gel, involve new players, and get a good chemistry going. It can take a good 30-40 games to develop a real team identity.

I will break this up into a few articles: "The East", "The West", and "Contenders and Pretenders".

Today I am going to start with the East. Both the Western and Eastern conferences are intriguing in their own ways, but the East's unpredictability this year has me hooked. Aside from the top four or so teams, well, you could make an argument for any of the other teams to make the playoffs. While it's somewhat similar to last year, the competition level has risen and the lower seeded teams will be legitimately better come playoff time. The East is pretty solid from teams 5-14(Washington is the only team definitely focusing on next season).

Eastern Conference Standings:

1. Cleveland: 29-6
2. Orlando: 30-8
3. Boston: 30-9
4. Detroit: 22-13
5. Atlanta: 22-14
6. Miami: 19-17
7. New Jersey: 18-19
8. Milwaukee: 18-21
9. Philadelphia: 17-20
   
10. Chicago: 16-21
11. Toronto: 16-22
    
12. New York: 13-22
    
13. Charlotte: 14-24
    
14. Indiana: 13-24
15. Washington: 7-29

It's a close little race. Indiana is currently second to last in the entire conference, but they are still only five games back. If any of the teams ranked 9-14 go on a little winning streak the entire structure of the standings could change. Milwaukee is a great example. After starting off pretty poorly, they won 6 out of 8 recently, and have been playing .500 ball since that little winning streak. Now they are sitting with an 8th seed playoff birth.

From 1-15 in the standings, here is a short analysis of each team:
(Contender: any team I label as a contender will be further discussed in another article)

1. Cleveland: Lebron and company are at peak of the East, and share the best record in basketball with the Lakers. Lebron has turned up his defense, and the entire team has followed suit, resulting in them being the to defensive team in many categories. Even more impressive is their ability to defend their home-court, with a golden 19-0 record at the Quicken Loans Arena. If they can stay this perfect on their home-court and finish the season in first place they will be winning home-court games to the championship title. Contenders.
2. Orlando: Stan Van Gundy has this team flying under the radar still. Somehow people continue to talk about the Cavs and Celtics, yet Orlando has been playing amazing basketball and overtaken Boston in the standings. Superman is as effective as ever in anchoring the team on both ends, but they have added some elements. An improved team defense is a big part of their great record, as well as the improved leadership and play of point-guard Jameer Nelson. Contenders.
3. Boston: Enough said. Defending champions who are still at the top, though they are currently struggling to stay dominant. They appear to be missing Posey and his combination of defense/3-point shooting, and overall their bench/depth is a bit lacking. Their core is still in it's prime, and young point-guard Rajon Rondo has improved his leadership and game. While his jumper is still suspect, his ability to defend, lead, and run an offense are very mature. Contenders.
4. Detroit: The A.I. deal seems to finally be working. They recently had a 7 game win-streak, albeit not the prettiest one. They still appear to be searching for their identity, but are still winning games while doing so. Rodney Stuckey, the second year guard, has emerged on the scene as their starting PG and is putting up great numbers while leading this team. He's the reason Billups was expendable, and has proved his worth. A.I. has been great since moving over to the SG spot, and he is buying into the system as a team. Hamilton has been out for awhile, and if the coaches can manage to have Hamilton become their 6th man and buy into it, well, I honestly think they could become serious contenders again. Their starting 5 is solid, so if they could bring Hamilton and McDyess of the bench they could cause some serious problems for the top teams. It's debatable whether they are contenders or pretenders.
   
5. Atlanta: After an incredible start to the season(a time when people were ranting they had become the best team in the East), they have come down to Earth a bit. I really like this team, but they are the defintion of inconsistent. They started the season with 6 wins in a row, then cooled off, recently won 9 out of 10, and since have lost 3 in a row(which in one they lost by 40). They have the pieces and athletes to really challenge teams come playoff time, but I think they are just too inexperienced. Their young core players like Horford, Williams, and Josh Smith are playing well. Bibby is having a great year and fitting in perfectly, and Joe Johnson is a great leader and clutch performer. The loss of Childress was overplayed, and their free-agent aquisitions of Flip Murray and Mo Evans erased any traces of Childress missing. I think they are a solid young team, and have a chance to finish a great regular season and push for 50 wins possibly. But aside from Bibby, and maybe Joe Johnson, this team is quite young and inexperienced. I am not taking away from how well they are playing this season, but come playoff time I think they might struggle to win a series. They struggle matching up against more traditional/bigger teams, and I think this might hurt them come playoff time.
   
6. Miami: Dwayne Wade. What more needs to be said? Last year they were a joke with Wade shutting it down prematurely. A lottery pick later(Michael Beasley), and a gold medalist and healthy Wade present, this team has become dangerous. Wade is having the best regular season of his career on both ends of the floor. He has picked up his defense and intensity, averaging a block and two steals a game, and the rest of the team is following suit. Marion and Haslem are both playing solid as forwards, both athletic and strong. Mario Chalmers has been a great surprise for them, providing a solid PG on both ends of the court. Beasley is developing slowly, but his raw talent and ability to score are fairly obvious. This kid is going to be a stud in a year or two. The team consists of mostly role players and Wade, but they can be dangerous come playoff time. Any team with a player like Wade who can take over a game should be taken seriously.
   
7. New Jersey: Probably the biggest surprise of the league. Going into this season I don't think I talked to a single person that had them pegged as a playoff team. After trading Kidd, then Richard Jefferson in the off-season for Yi and to free up cap-space for 2010, I think it was only natural to think of them as rebuilding for 2010. There are simply two reason why New Jersey is a solid team: 1- Vince Carter 2- Devin Harris. Vince looks like his old self and seems to be leading this team in the locker room. The bigger story is the emergence of Devin Harris. He has gone from a solid young guard with potential to one of the best point-gaurds in the league...all in one season. He is having a career and all-star caliber year, averaging close to 24 points per contest along with 6.6 assists and 1.6 steals. The Nets might have the bets back-court duo in the league. Add to that rookie Brooke Lopez has become a solid 10/10 center that can block 2 shots a game, Yi Jianlin developing into a solid starting PF, and a decent bench, and you have yourself a pretty decent team. With all that said, I am not so sure this is really a playoff team. I enjoy watching them, I really do, but even with improvements they are still a limited front-court, and I just don't see VC hitting enough buzzer beaters to keep them in contention. I really hope I am wrong about that though.
   
8. Milwaukee: This was a team I pegged as a playoff team. Sure, they past few years I might of done the same thing....but this year is different. With Scott Skiles at the helm of this ship, they are finally setting sail in the right direction. It took them about 20 or so games to buy into his system, but the dividends are starting to pay off. They play like a playoff team: Defense first. The Richard Jefferson/Michael Redd combo seems to be clicking as of late, and even though this team has been fighting through injuries all season(mainly Redd and Bogut), they have found a way to win games. Shedding Mo Williams for a more pure PG in Ridnour appears to have been a solid move. They also got a steal in Mbah a Moute. I really think this is a solid playoff team(barring injuries), and as the season progressed they will only get bettere. They have finally found their identity...but can they perfect it?
   
9. Philadelphia: Adding a 20/10 stud like Elton Brand to an already on the rise playoff team can only make them better....right? It appears to be untrue, but Philly tends to make late season runs following the All-Star break. Brand has struggled through injuries, and the team just doesn't look to be clicking like everybody thought. Iguodala's numbers have gone down across the board, which has people questioning his recent contract. He has come on as of late though, and they are looking a bit better. Sam Dalembert seems lost, with or without Brand, and is getting limited minutes as a result. Thaddeus Young has shown flashes of All-Star potential throughout the year, and rookie Mareese Speights has been a solid contributor as well. While the team has talent, they are missing something. Having Brand out for a month could be a blessing in disguise or a disaster. This is one of those teams that just confuses me. They could easily push there way into the playoffs and even be a 5 or 6 seed, but they could also fall right into the lottery as well. Only time will tell.
   
10. Chicago: Derrick Rose has shown why he was the overall #1 pick of the draft, but it might not be enough. The Bulls are a talented squad, but injuries and lack of chemistry could result in another playoff-less season. Hinrich has been out for a few months with thumb surgery, and Luol Deng has been fighting through nagging injuries all season. He hasn't been himself all year. With that said, Derrick Rose is already one of the better PG's in the league, able to create for himself and others at will. With Ben Gordon at his side, having a career year in nearly every statistical category, they are carrying most of the load. Drew Gooden is a solid and consistent player, but they do lack the size you would want in a playoff team. Tyrus Thomas has shown his flashes of potential, and has had some of the best games of his career. Problem is he tends to follow those with a stretch of bad games. What's amazing is this team is still searching for it's identity and how to play around their new PG of the future, and all the while they are right at the edge of making the playoffs. While I don't personally think they make the playoffs unless they trade for a solid center, anything is possible.
    
11. Toronto: Adding Jermaine O'Neal and handing the team to Jose Calderon could only make the already playoff team better, one would think. Very similar to the Philly situation, they added a big and post presence that hasn't quite worked out yet. O'Neal has been fighting through injuries(like he has the past few years), and his stats are nothing but respectable. But the team just isn't clicking. I blame it on the wing positions. They don't have a legitimate starting SF, and while Parker and Kapono are good players, they are still inferior to most other starts SG's. I think Toronto is a trade away from being near contenders, but they could just as easily miss the playoffs all-together. While Andrea Bargnani is finally stepping up and showing he is not a bust, the team is a bit out of whack. They basically have zero perimeter defense, and until that changes I am not sure they can do much, maybe push for the 8th spot. Bosh is having a career year, and along with O'Neal, Calderon, and Bargnani the team could do something....but I doubt they make an impact if they make the playoffs(barring a trade).
    
12. New York: D'Antoni had this team off to a hot start. Then Walsh entered the
    "Lebron Sweepstakes". He traded Jamal Crawford for Al Harrington, and then followed that with a trade sending Zach Randolph to the Clippers for Tim Thomas and Cuttino Mobley(forced to retire). These were moves that sent really talented players to other teams, and in return got decent players who expire in or before 2010. While Crawford and Randolph were possibly the two most talented players on the team, the Knicks seem to be playing like more of a team lately. Harrington is struggling to adapt to the system, but he's a D'Antoni type player. David Lee has improved even moreso, putting up crazy numbers and is a top 5 rebounder. Chris Duhon has proven to be a solid free agency pickup, having a career year and is a top 5 in assist man in the league. Nate Robinson and Wilson Chandler are both having breakout years with career numbers, but this was sort of expected because of the pace factor. D'Antoni has this team running his system well, 7 seconds or less, and playing little to no defense. While they could make a push at the playoffs, I strongly doubt that as happening. But they really are damn fun to watch.
    
13. Charlotte: Hire coach Larry Brown and things will change. They traded away Jason Richardson for Raja Bell and Boris Diaw, and are supposedly looking to trade Raymond Felton for a solid big-man, and possibly move Diaw/Bell again. Browns defensive philosophy is slowly rubbing off on some of the players, but they are as inconsistent as any team out there. One night they will beat Boston and the next get completely destroyed by Philadelphia. Okafor seems to finally be coming out of his shell and is really starting to looke like an All-Star. Aside from that I don't see much. Augustin and Felton are both very skilled players, but both are as inconsistent as the team. Gerald Wallace gives you what you expect, an all-around solid SF, but he seems disinterested. I doubt this team makes a playoff push, but it's not impossible. I do think they will be solid in the following years, as they have entered a Larry Brown era and will establish an identity. Just not this year.
    
14. Indiana: aka "The Giant Killers". Indiana is a very, very interesting and intriguing team. They have beaten the Lakers, the Celtics, and many other top teams in the league. They have also been beat by teams like Golden State and many sub .500 teams. Even with their current record and position, I still think they have a glimmer of playoff hope. They have played 13 games decided by 3 points or less. That is twice as many as any other team. Problem is they have lost most of those. That's 10 games they could of won had they hit a buzzer beater...which would change the entire landscape of the East. Danny Granger has become a sure-fire All-Star this year, putting up spectacular numbers. He is 4th in the league in scoring, and he is becoming very consistent, as well as clutch recently. They have a franchise player to count on come crunch time, something most of these weaker teams lack. Add in that Mike Dunleavy missed the first 34 games, and TJ Ford has been off and on with injuries, and you can see why this team still has hope for the playoffs. They are literally a center away from being a contender in my opinion, and while that might be a stretch, it's definitely plausible. They have solid young studs, a deep bench, a solid system, and an unselfish team. They just have to learn how to consistently win close games. I still smell a playoff push......and if not I would watch out for them next year.
    
15. Washington: Not a good year for those in the greater D.C. area. Arenas has yet to play a game after signing that $100+ million contract, and there are reports he is not even close to returning(why bother now?). The team just looked pathetic for the first 20 or so games, and lately has become competitive for the most part. I think Brendan Haywood is missed more than people think, as he had become a solid center on both ends of the floor. The combo of Butler and Jamison just isn't enough for them this year, especially with role players playing poorly. Nick Young, Javalee McGee, and Dominic McGuire have been the lone bright spots on a very ugly season so far. Hopefully they get lucky in the lottery and hit a top 3 pick. While this season is pretty much over, with Arenas/Haywood back next year, along with a lottery pick, well, they could be dangerous.