"WCF: Lakers vs Nuggets"

Finally. The Lakers chose to show up Sunday in a dominating win to clinch their series with Houston in a "bi-polar fashion", as Kobe put it. So now we can finally look at the Western Conference Finals, and by that I mean without having to knock on wood after every sentence. Melo, Chauncey, and the Denver Nuggets have just been relaxing this past week; probably watching some ball, eating out at fancy resturaunts, and taking those mid-day naps. Kobe and the Lakers have been flying back and forth between LA and Houston, grinding out an unnecessary long series that is finally over.

So what now. We know that the new wave of media has labeled the Lakers as "arrogant" and I recall Kenny Smith saying "they don't deserve to be the champs". I agree, well, to some small degree, that the Lakers display of attempting to walk through the NBA playoffs without giving 100% effort does show a lack of respect to the opponents; it also shows that they are still a young team trying to figure out their identity with Bynum being integrated back in. The latter is what they forget to discuss, and instead they have created this whole idea that the Lakers are basically the "bad guys" and everybody will be rooting for the Nuggets in this series. This is likely true.

So it's the "good versus evil". The Holy and respectful people of Denver against the arrogant residents of Los Angeles, now the city of demons I guess. Carmelo is the good, Kobe the bad. You get my point. Gotta love how they manage to always put a twist on every NBA series that matters. With that said, let's try to analyze what will come out of this great "good versus evil" series.

Let's take a look at the starting 5 match-ups:


At first glance it's quite intriguing. Both of these teams are in the Western Conference Finals for a reason: they have a great group of starters on both ends of the court. Both teams play great defense, at least when they want to, though I would give Denver the nod with overall defense right now. Offensively I think the Lakers are a bit better, but Denver is right there with them. The teams are pretty even, so let's take a look at the players and match-ups:

-Point-Guard: Derick Fisher vs. Chauncey Billups: Obviously Billups is going to do his thing in this series and wins this match-up. I do, however, think that Fisher will have better luck going against Chauncey than he did against lighting quick Brooks last series; physically speaking Fisher matches up well with Billups. If the Lakers and Fish can hold Billups to his season averages, around 20 points and 7 assists, they will have done a great job. On the other hand, if Billups can do what he did in their series with the Hornets, almost averaging 25 and 10, the Lakers could be in trouble. This is an important match-up.

-Shooting-Guard: Kobe Bryant vs. Dahntay Jones: Kobe is going to have a smile on his face when he pulls up for his next jumper and notices that Shane Battier's sweaty palm isn't an inch away from his eyes. Kobe is going to need to not only have a great series here, but he needs to play much more efficiently. If he has more games where he scores 28 points, while having to take 24 shots to get those points, it will be a long series for his team. Jones is a capable defender, though he's nothing like Battier or Artest, so I see Jones probably playing him physically while trying to get in Kobe's head; he will fight foul trouble all series as well. For the Lakers to win this series, Kobe needs to be much more productive than last series, and he has every oppurtunity to do so here.

-Small-Forward: Trevor Ariza vs. Carmelo Anthony: Melo is going to have to adjust to having an actual capable defender on him this series, but Melo is so versatile(read my previous blog in which one might think I have a crush on him) that Ariza won't be able to stop him, but he can help contain him. I think this might be the biggest match-up for both teams possibly; if Melo has another one of his Dallas series where he's averaging over 30+ points while doing so very efficiently, the Lakers might be packing their bags. If Ariza can manage to hold Melo to below 50% from the field, keep him off the free-throw line as much as possible, and can counter with 10 to 15 points himself, I think that could be the difference in the series. Ariza needs to step up his game in this series even more than the previous ones.

-Power-Forward: Pau Gasol vs. Kenyon Martin: Just like all the others, it's an intriguing match-up. Gasol is an All-Star big-man, but K-Mart is a skillfull, athletic, pesky player that can possibly cause problems for Gasol. If Gasol plays tough, establishes post position, and asserts himself he will have no problem shooting right over K-Mart like Dirk did in the last series. But if Gasol let's K-Mart pester him and push him away from the paint, we might read more headlines titled "Gasol: The Softy". I do think that Odom is going to play big minutes in this series, and I think an Odom/KMart match-up is just as intriguing, but we'll discuss that in the 6th man comparison. As for Gasol, he needs to show his toughness, like he did in the Utah series, and continue to have these 20/10 games we are accustomed to. If he under-performs, the team seems to follow suit.

-Center: Andrew Bynum vs. Nene Hilario: This is my favorite match-up. I'm totally psyched to watch this(fingers crossed). I've gotten into much discussion recently about the "Top 10 Centers" in the NBA; we compiled a list based off of 20-30 of us regular forum members. Nene was the consensus 5th best, while Bynum failed to make the list. Their season numbers are nearly identical: basically 14 points, 8 boards, 1-2 blocks. Anyway, this match-up is either going to be great, or be short. Nene plays tough, so Bynum needs to duplicate his Game 7 performance, playing smart while playing aggressive. Bynum is so important to the Lakers defense, they really need him out there for 20-30 minutes, especially in this series. He needs to stay away from his stupid fouls so he can have an impact, but I guess the same goes for Nene too. Bynum has a good 5 inches or so on Nene, so he should be able to get his offense going. Nene is quicker than Bynum, and just as strong, so he should be able to do his thing too. All in all, I just think it's a great match-up. Bynum can either step up and show that he's a top center in this league, or he can disappear and let Nene dominate him. I prefer the first, and so does Phil Jackson.


-6th Man: These guys both play a HUGE part for their respective teams. I honestly think they might be the true "X-Factors" in this series. As important as I think the Ariza/Melo and Fish/Billups match-ups can be, I think these guys might be more important. Lamar brings such versatility to the Lakers as a team. He provides them with a little of everything, including energy and wins. We need the assertive, energetic Lamar this series; the one that takes, and makes, open threes, owns the glass, and looks to push the ball as the point-forward. If he shows up, the Nuggets have NOBODY to match-up with him. He's a match-up nightmare. Another match-up nightmare: JR Smith. This kid can shoot, but is also just a pure scorer. Not only is he one of the deadliest, quickest 3-point shooters in the league, but he has extreme athleticism and handles that allow him to get to the rim with ease. Kobe/Ariza can try to contain him, but even that is a stretch. This is where I see Vujacic becoming useless; he's the second unit SG, so he will be matched up with JR quite a bit. As a result, I imagine that Phil will start bringing Shannon Brown in as the backup SG, especially if Sasha isn't shooting at a high clip. If JR manages to have any more 20 point games in 25 minutes off the bench, George Karl and the Nuggets will be more than satisfied. Lamar and JR really can change the outcome of the game when they step on the court off the bench. Let's see who's more assertive; I'm sure the result will follow.

-Bench: So both teams have great starting 5's, and both having amazing 6th men. So accordingly, both teams have great benches too. The Lakers bench has struggled all playoffs, and if that doesn't change I don't know if the Lakers can win this series. Farmar looked great towards the end of last series, and he needs to continue keeping his confidence up and play aggressive. Vujacic is unpredictable; he needs to wash his hair, and his mind, and just start shooting like he used to. Walton has been Mr. Average, so hopefully he can start hitting some shots and contributing like he did in the Utah series. Brown might get good minutes this series as well, so he needs to duplicate that Utah series as well. Denver basically has an 8 man rotation: the 6th man JR, and the other 6th man Chris Andersen, along with Anthony Carter. Andersen is a big game-changer, especially at home, and any game that he stays out of foul trouble is a game that Denver will compete. He needs to stay on the floor, block shots, and just bring that energy he always does. Carter is a capable backup PG, and he's played some great ball so far. He can be an offensive liability, so he needs to continue hitting his open shots to keep the defense honest. All in all I think both benches, OUTSIDE of their 6th man, are important, but not as important as others might think. The bench needs to perform well, don't get me wrong, but the difference in this series will most likely be pertaining to the best 6 players on each team.

Conclusion: Who really knows. I laugh after saying this, and we all know it's the truth, but I will take a well educated guess. So when it's all said and done I take the Lakers. They are the more talented team, and they appear to dominate games that they show up for. I don't see them underestimating this Denver team, so they will show up with their A-game from the first tip. They have nobody to guard Kobe, while the Lakers have two capable defenders that will at least help contain Melo. Billups will do his thing, but so will Gasol. Bynum and Nene will bang inside all series. I keep coming back to Lamar Odom and JR Smith when I look for that "x-factor", and I think Odom is going to surprise us all.

Lakers in 6. But if I were to put money on it I might have to go with Lakers in 7.

"Let's Melo Things Down"

The spotlight of the media has been focused on the Denver Nuggets the past month, and in the center of that spotlight stands Carmelo Anthony. The past few years it seems he managed to somehow go from an overrated talent to an underrated franchise player. Weird how that happens these days. Three years ago people said he was young, raw, and had a poor attitude while making playoff runs and losing in the opening rounds every year. Now, the story is a bit different.

When people talk about that amazing draft-class of 2003 it seems that Dwayne Wade, and of course Lebron James, are the two players involved in the discussion. This previous summer I even noticed that Chris Bosh, who was also drafted in 2003, was coming up in discussion as a legit franchise guy more than Melo was. Amazing how we can so quickly dismiss players, and it's even more impressive how those players come storming back.

Coming into the 2008-09 season Carmelo was a known star. But with that, teams would scheme around him, knowing he was an offensive force that had a somewhat poor shot selection and jacked up tons of shots, was a mediocre passer, and more importantly a poor defender. He was never at the level a franchise player should be. While he had 3 seasons in a row of 25 or more points per game(one with 28.9), he never really had a complete game, and more importantly never seemed to play within a system and make those around him better.

Steps in Chauncey Billups. Attained at the beginning of the season, he came over and instantly impacted the entire culture of this Denver franchise. He is the savvy veteran leader that they've longed for the past few years. The team responded quickly to his mindset and team-play style, on both defense and offense, and as a result the Nuggets had their best season in the history of the Nuggets franchise. They clinched the 2nd seed in the West, and are currently playing the best basketball in the West, possibly in the NBA.

Going into the playoffs people, including myself, were still underrating both Melo and the Nuggets. After a quick, humiliating 5 game series in which Denver destroyed Chris Paul and his Hornets squad(including a record tying 56 point win), it was obvious that Denver was finally a contender, and Melo was their go-to guy. Then Dallas in round 2. Game 3 was questionable and could of changed the series, but let's not worry about that. Instead, we look and see that Denver completely dominated the first two games with Dallas, defensively scheming and executing extremely efficiently. Game 3 Melo and Denver showed they were clutch hitting a 3 to win the game in closing seconds. Game 4 was a hiccup like many teams have, though not a big one, and then Game 5 they entirely dominated all game, showing they are the better team without a doubt.

So let's Melo things down a bit. Denver is playing much better basketball than the Lakers(and Houston), and people are finally starting to respect that. If Denver faced the Lakers squad that has been playing the last few weeks, Denver would win that series in 5, maybe 6. This Denver team plays too well on both ends of the floor, and more importantly they show up night in, night out. Chauncey has this team mentally focused and is the conductor of this train, but Melo is the engine that drives this team to wins.

Melo's regular season was a bit up and down, but still ever impressive. His scoring dropped, and for some reason his percentages dropped a little too. But overall, we have seen his attitude and mindset change, and more importantly he plays for the team and to win games. He has shown games where he plays great defense; a great example was against Dallas he would match-up with Dirk and do a great job pestering Dirk on the post. Melo not only can score at will, but he can now create plays for other people, rebound better than most power-forwards, play very solid defense, and will take, and possibly make, any clutch shot necessary.

Then come the playoffs. It's only been 10 games for Melo and the Nuggets in the 2 rounds, but it's a great sample to see just how well Melo is playing, and explains why the Nuggets are at this level:

27.0 ppg 4.3 apg 6.4 rpg 2.0 spg 0.8 bpg 48%FG 45%3ptFG

That's what I call impressive. You can see that he not only is scoring and passing at an amazing rate, but look at his efficiency doing so. Nearly making half of his shots, and 45% of his threes. Simply phenomenal. You can't Melo things down much from there, he's just too damn good. Then you can see he's not only playing tough defense, both man and team D, but he has stats to prove it: two steals a game and one block a game. Pretty all-around perfect numbers for your franchise small-forward.

Now those are all things tangible. Yes I can rely on stats a little too much, but I just love my numbers. Mathematically Melo is playing the best ball of his playoff career, but more importantly we can just watch the kid play and concur with that statement. Watching this kid is a blast, as he might be the most versatile, pure scorer in the entire NBA. This kid has a more expansive offensive style than both Kobe and Lebron possibly. Melo's pure jump-shot from both 17 feet and 3pt land are better than both Kobe's and Lebron's. Melo has a better post-up game than Lebron; a better ability to get to the rim at will than Kobe. I am not saying he's a better player, because he's not, and probably not a better offensive player than either of those guys either; but like Charles Barkley said: "Melo is the best pure scorer in the NBA".

I concur. And as a Laker fan, I am scared. Well, I'm already scared that we are going into a Game 7 with the Rockets....but assuming we win that game(knock on wood) we are now going up against a Denver team playing the best team basketball of it's Melo years.

"Nostradamus: First-Round"

When the playoffs roll around it's always fun to join those brackets where you predict the winners of each round(and in how many games) and compete with the world. Of course, I am a basketball God, and many people have called me the "Nostradamus of the NBA". Wait, my mistake, they usually call me the "NostraDumbass of the NBA". Big difference. Either way, I make predictions and sometimes I get lucky.

Nostradumbass would spend more time writing, observing, and analyzing each matchup, but the playoffs start tomorrow and he is a perfectionist. Either he writes an entire report for each matchup(which takes hours for each one), or he goes with his genius gut that always gives him the correct answers. Simply put, Brandon Roy hit that amazing fadeaway buzzer-beating three-pointer in overtime against the Rockets earlier this season. This is a sign that the Blazers will beat the Rockets in clutch situations, and as a result the Blazers will win the series in 6 games. Nostradumbass ignores the statements of "the Blazers are too young and inexperienced" because he already knows how these young players will perform under pressure in clutch situations. This is all you need to know about Nostradumbass for now. So let's move on to the first round predictions:

WEST:

• Lakers vs Jazz: Lakers in 6(could be 5, but Jazz love their home-court)
• Nuggets vs Hornets: Hornets in 7(Chris Paul saves his best for the playoffs)
  
• Blazers vs Rockets: Blazers in 6(Portland loves home-court)
• Spurs vs Mavericks: Spurs in 7(as much as I like the Mavs, it's an odd year)

EAST

• Cavaliers vs. Pistons: Cavs in 5(I just don't see it for the Pistons)
• Celtics vs. Bulls: Celtics in 6(without KG this could be competitive)
• Magic vs Sixers: Magic in 6(Magic are still somehow sleepers; ECF)
  
• Hawks vs Heat: Heat in 7(great series, Wade will prevail)

There we have it. Notradumbass has struck again and will likely get a score of 100%. He is never wrong. He enjoys writing in 3rd person. He enjoys keeping it simple with his predictions. He has no reason to explain his answers, because he is the official "Nostradumbass of the NBA".

"Mavs vs Spurs"

I am done. I have vowed to no longer underrate this Dallas Mavericks team. All season long I have been talking with everyone about Dallas' downfall, how they would be "that team in the West to drop out of the playoff race", and all the other baseless things we said assuming Dallas is not the same team they once were. I know you thought the same things too when this season began. But no more. No more.

Dallas clinched the 6th seed last night with an entertaining win against the Rockets. Down by double-digits at one point they came chuggin' back to life like a freight train with Jason Kidd conducting it all, ended up winning by double-digits while Kidd managed to grab his 103rd career triple-double while Dirk had a nice 30 points and 15 boards. Dallas really made a emphatic point with this game, telling America that they are still a top team. They have great momentum going into the playoffs, and they have the clutch shooters to win.

With the regular season finally over, we can actually analyze the matchups for the first round. The Spurs also won a great fight against the Hornets last night; Finley hit a clutch 3 to push the game into overtime, and OT was dominated by Parker and Duncan. That's really all they need to be contenders: Tony Parker and Tim Duncan. The problem is Ginobli is gone, and they have no real 3rd option. Duncan and Parker are surrounded by good role players, but will that be enough?

So enough regular season talk, let's get to the matchup. The Spurs are the 3rd seed, and the Mavs are the 6th; thus homecourt obviously goes to the Spurs. This is the one series that really confuses me, and I think everyone. The 8 ESPN columnists split their votes 4-4 on who would win. So let's take a quick look at the rosters/matchups:

Dallas Mavericks
PG: Jason Kidd
SG: Antoine Wright
SF: Josh Howard
PF: Dirk Nowitzki
C: Eric Dampier
6th: Jason Terry(PG/SG)
Bench: Brandon Bass(PF); JJ Barea(PG); Ryan Hollins(C); James Singleton(PF/SF)
San Antonio
PG: Tony Parker
SG: Roger Mason
SF: Mike Finley
PF: Matt Bonner
C: Tim Duncan
6th: Ime Udoka
Bench: Drew Gooden(PF/C); George Hill(PG/SG); Bruce Bowen(SF/SG); Kurt Thomas(PF/C)

Looking at the matchups I have to give Dallas the advantage. Parker will obviously wreak havoc on the offensive end with Kidd/Terry guarding him most of the game, but both those players will be able to do their thing on offense too. Wright starts at SG most of the time for his defensive presence, but Jason Terry and Kidd are the back-court for this team a majority of the time so I will give the nod to Jason Terry outplaying Roger Mason; Terry is just the better pure scorer. Then at SF Howard is just a better all-around player and athlete than Finley. I think Howard is going to be the X-Factor in this series. If he plays like he has lately the Mavs are going to be scary. Dirk obviously has a big advanatage on Matt Bonner, and Duncan obviously has a huge advantage on Dampier too.

Both teams have mediocre benches; Ginobli really changes the structure of this team, and without him they are 2 stars surrounded by role players. This series is going to come down to the Spurs being able to stop the Mavs high octane offense. Can Popovich use his scheming to try and force the ball out of Dirks hands while maybe having Bowen shadow Jason Terry all over the court? Most of us have seen the drop off Bowen has displayed this year, but maybe they are just saving him for the playoffs like these smart coaches often do.

Better starting 5: Dallas
Better 6th man: Dallas
Better bench: Tied
Better go-to guys: Spurs
Better coach: Spurs

You be the judge. This is definitely the series I am looking forward to the most; moreso than the great Hawks/Heat matchup and the Blazers/Rockets matchup. I think this will be a 7 game series, and Dallas might steal this. Either way though, it should be a great series.

"The Curse of the Spurs"

Is it just me or do the Spurs just fly under the radar every season? I'm not only talking about the Spurs as a team either, but their players always go unnoticed and unappreciated for the most part as well. How many times have you had a conversation with someone about the Top10 players in the league and simply forgot to include Tim Duncan? I know I have, and the problem is that we tend to forget about them; I'm pretty sure most any real fan will agree Duncan is still a Top10 player, so it really is just a Curse of the Spurs: they've been so great and solid for such a long period of time now(over a decade) they we tend to simply undervalue them as a whole and their players go unappreciated for the most part. My subject for today is Tony Parker, a prime example of what I am talking about.

I'm trying to not base my entire discussions on stats these days, but I still have to at least use the core stats of players to satisfy my urges of being a stat-whore(a slut of stats basically....). Devin Harris might be the most talked about "young" player that has had a breakout season and is possibly going to win the Most Improves Player award. I'm not trying to discredit him to any degree, because he is a really solid, All-Star caliber point-guard, but when you take a look at what that kid(or should I say man) has done this season I can't help but wonder why Tony Parker isn't talked about just as much. I understand Harris deserves all his accolades as his increases are a bit larger from last season, though his actual production is IDENTICAL to his production last season(he's just getting 7 more minutes a game, which is 25% more play-time), but I won't get into that......but take a look yourself....his per-minute production isn't an improvement at all; but I am not arguing the Most Improved Player award here(I'll save that for another blog). The interesting thing with Parker is he is playing basically the same amount of minutes as the previous season, yet every single stat of his has jumped up a decent amount. Anyway, since Harris has become this "great future PG" I want to compare Tony Parker to him this season....

Per Game:

• Harris:---22.6ppg---7.0apg---3.3rpg---1.7spg---44%FG
• Parker:---21.9ppg---7.0apg---3.0rpg---1.0spg---50%FG

Per36:

• Harris:---22.2ppg--6.9apg---3.2rpg---1.7spg
• Parker:---23.1ppg---7.3apg---3.1rpg---1.0spg

PER:

• Harris: 23.0
• Parker: 22.9

So where's the love for my boy Tony Parker? His stats have increased in every single category for career best averages in points, assists, steals, 3pt-FG% and FG%. This guy is averaging over 20 points a game and 7 assists a game as the leader and point-guard of the greatest franchise in basketball for the last decade. His numbers are nearly identical to Devin Harris around the board. Then realize Parker plays less minutes than Harris, and then take a look at their FG%. Parker trumps Harris, and any PG for that matter, being able to make HALF of his shots for the entire season. Why don't people talk about Tony as the new "PG of the future"? How does a quick little midget like Tony accomplish such a feat? Aside from Steve Nash......I don't think any of the other great guards we talk about these days come close to making half of their shots. Moving on....

Now, Let's not forget his wife is 20 times hotter than anyone else(below); he gets a few more points for that in my book. He's the point-guard and new leader of the San Antonio Spurs who happen to be the second best team in the Western Conference, and of course we can't forget he was the 2007 NBA Finals MVP. Tony Parker has single-handedly carried the Spurs through their bouts with injury all year; he began the season with Ginobli out the first few games putting up insane numbers including a 55 point, 10 assist, 7 rebound effort against the Timberwolves. Recently he's picked up his play even more with Ginobli having been out for the last month or so by putting up great numbers and keeping this team atop the standings. While Tim Duncan has obviously played a vital role in all this, even he's admitted that Tony Parker drives this team and is without a doubt their MVP this year. While Parker is not going to be in the discussion for league MVP(at least not while Duncan is on his team) I do think he's spot on about Parker being the engine and heart that drives this team on a nightly basis. So where's the love for Tony?

People also seem to forget Tony Parker is only 26 years old. That's not a typo; he's twenty-six years old. That's the main reason I wanted to compare him to Devin Harris. People seem to think Parker's around 30 years of age because of Duncan and Ginobli's age, as well as his long tenure in the league. I often forget Parker came to the Spurs from France at the age of 18, and I know many other fans do the same thing. Everyone talks about Devin Harris as this new "PG of the future", yet Parker is never mentioned in those same talks. Every day they discuss how Chris Paul and Deron Williams are the future guards of this league(which is obviously true), but this season the other relatively young guards having break-out seasons are surfacing in these talks all too often; "the future stud PG's of the NBA" like Devin Harris(25), Mo Williams(26), Jose Calderon(27), and Jameer Nelson(27). So why the hell is Tony Parker not in these talks at the age of 26 with his prime years ahead of him?

It's the curse of being a San Antonio Spur. Tony Parker might have been the least talked about player of the All-Star weekend; yes, that includes Nate Robinson and all the dunkers as well as the guys in the Rookie/Sophomore game. This Spurs franchise, and it's players, have somehow been able to continuously fly under the radar despite winning 4 NBA titles in the past decade. Tim Duncan is possibly the best power-forward to play the game(at least top5) yet people spend all their time discussing the other great players in the league. I guess it shouldn't be a surprise that Tony Parker continues to fly under the radar as he improves and becomes a clearcut stud. I guess when you've been in the league since 18 and already had 6 great seasons starting on the best franchise in the league winning 3 titles in that span fans and everyone else seem to simply take you for granted. I'm sure Tony doesn't mind either. He'll gladly let all the hype and fuss surround Devin Harris and the other young guards of the league right now. Once the playoffs come Tony Parker will show why he really is not only one of the best PG's in the league, but one of the best players in the league.... just like he always does.

So whenever I start taking Tony Parker for granted I just do a quick youtube search and always come to a great video. After scanning a few videos, I think this is a perfect example that will really do justice to my discussion, and in itself says so much more than I can every write in word. Remember, he's only 25 in this game last season; and not once do they say anything about his age.....not once.

"The Rockets: Contenders?"

The Houston Rockets have been making a very strong push in the Western Conference standings. As of late they have been on a nice streak winning 8 of their last 10 games(as well as 16 of their last 20) and finished the streak off off by beating the San Antonio Spurs yesterday morning. This puts them half a game ahead of the Spurs in the standings, which means they are now first in the South-West division; ahead of the Spurs, Hornets, and Mavericks. So at least for today, with the constantly swapping of seeds, when you take a look at the Western Conference standings the Rockets are now 2nd overall, half a game up on the Spurs. Not bad for a team missing their "franchise guy". This will be a rather detailed and extensive analysis of the Rockets as a team, and also an analysis of each individual player and what they've done for the team. So get your coffee, put on your reading glasses, and prepare to become aware of the new title contender in the Western Conference.

As I stated the Rockets have climbed the standings all the way to 2nd, and they've done all this without their known franchise player. So expanding on the situation: Tracy McGrady has been out for nearly 2 months now. One would think when a team's go-to guy goes down for the rest of the season that his team would likely suffer as a result. We really couldn't of been more wrong about that. The Rockets off-season move of trading for Ron Artest really makes them look quite genius today. Not only has he helped fill in as their other go-to guy(along with Yao) but he has actually been more productive to the team than T-Mac was this season. I want to stress "this season" when I discuss T-Mac being replaced. While my discussion will point out how the team has flourished with Artest as the new go-to guy and T-Mac was actually having a negative impact on the team, nowhere do I state, or even think, that the Rockets are better off without a healthy T-Mac.

Now that I've cleared that up, let's take a nice look at the Rockets entire season and try to find out what all the variables are for this team going from a decent playoff team to a possibly contender. I believe a main part of their success is related to Artest and T-Mac. T-Mac playing injured, with one leg and shoulder, was actually detrimental to the team this year. The Rockets and T-Mac made a very smart move shutting him down for the season(as he desperately need surgery and rehab) and having good ole' Ron-Ron fill in as the starting SG. To prove what I just stated here are some relatively simple stats that help back my statements up:

Rockets:___Off___Def___net(+/-)____rec___
T-Mac:_____97.4___94.2______2.8______18-17
Artest:-_____98.1___91.8 ______6.2______37-20

(Off = points per game)--(Def = points allowed per game)--
(net(+/-)= difference)--(rec=team's total record)--

I'm not going to delve quite as deeply into the numbers as I am known to do, but I want to at least spend a little time with these numbers. When you look at the total offense and defensive numbers for the Rockets(with T-Mac or with Artest) it's quite obvious that this season Ron-Ron has been the more productive and important player. Not only are the Rockets allowing 2.4 less points per game, but they are actually a better offensive team by nearly 1ppg as well. While these seem like relatively small numbers to the average person, anybody that knows the NBA and statistics realizes this is actually quite drastic difference. The net difference between the Rockets with Artest is a total of +3.4 points per game for the Rockets as a team. Just to point differential for a team in retrospect: the Atlanta Hawks have a +2.1 ppg differential while the Milwaukee Bucks have a -1.1 ppg differential on the season. That's a 3ppg difference in margin, yet the result is one team winning 50 games and making the playoffs as a 4 seed and the other team on track to come rather close to losing 50 games in a season. Not so small now is it?

Then there's the team's record that speaks for itself. With T-Mac they were barely a .500 team this season going 18-17; with Artest they've gone 37-20 and moved up to having the 2nd best record in the Western Conference. I'd dive a little deeper into it, but I think it's rather clear that Artest taking over for T-Mac has played a big role in the Rockets great surge the past few months. Artest's great individual and team defense is not the only thing that has made the Rockets more efficient as a whole, but his ability to score on offense without having to dominate the ball and stagnate the offense is just as beneficial. And let's not forget the great energy and personality that crazy Ron-Ron brings to the game every night. He's can be such a force on both ends of the floor; such a pesky defender that can really get under the skin of great opponents. It's quite obvious he doesn't enjoy losing any game at all and as a result plays with extreme heart and passion every game. I could go on about Artest's overall game and ecstatic personality, but if you just watch this guy play you know he's a top competitor in the league. I wish more people could forget about his shenanigans as a Pacer and realize what a great player Ron-Ron really is; he's proved it this season and I'll leave it on that note.

Then there's the other franchise, go-to player in Yao Ming who's playing as solid as he ever has. He's simply a nightly guarantee of his usual 20 points, 10 rebounds, and 2 blocks every night, but more importantly he has really flourished in their adjusted offense with Artest as his sidekick and has mastered the art of drawing double-teams and kicking it out to the open man. The offense is more often ran through Yao than it ever has been, and he's adjusted seemlessly. I think the doubts people displayed in the past, including Rocket fans, are slowly fading as Yao proves he can stay healthy for an entire season and contribute consistently as well; he's a legitimate guy to build around.

Then there's the trade-deadline move Daryl Morey and the Rockets made that I felt was an under-the-radar, yet genius move. Getting rid of the chucker veteran Rafer Alston(allowing their young PG Brooks to fill in) while getting another solid young PG in return was perfect for them. Aaron Brooks and Kyle Lowry have become a great two-headed monster at the PG spot.

• Aaron Brooks: His great all-around play this season as the backup allowed the Rockets to move Alston and his contract. At a first glance it becomes quite apparent Brooks is possibly the quickest player in the league. His first step and penetration is similar to that of Tony Parker, but he also has a great pull-up elbow jumper and shoots over 36% from 3pt territory. He's proven to not only be a solid starting PG that can score, but he's shown during quite a few games that he can be counted on to take some big shots and make some big-time plays. It's not that often a second year point-guard has the confidence to step-up and make the game winning play. He's quickly become the Rockets PG of the future and they have put much trust in the kid. He's averaging 14 points and 4 assists in the month of March while playing less than 30 minutes a game.
• Kyle Lowry: Simply put, he was a great pickup. Memphis gave 20 year old Mike Conley the golden key to running the Grizzlies, even though Lowry was actually just as productive(if not moreso) than Conley for the Griz. Lowry adapted to the Rockets offense immediately and fits in just fine. He comes in off the bench with great energy on both ends which fits the Rockets mold perfectly. He's a bigger sized guard that brings a different style than Brooks. His big, tough body allow him to penetrate and finish quite effectively, and while his jumper needs some work it's not too bad eitehr. He's putting up around 8 points and 4 assists a game for the Rockets in about 23 minutes a game. Not a bad PG to have coming off the bench.

Then you have a role-player like Luis Scola who has flourished next to Yao and really understands how to play off of him on the offensive end. Last season Scola found his niche in their offense towards the end of the season and really started to put up good numbers. This season he's averaging 12.8ppg and 8.8rpg; he's become the grinding, tough PF that complements Yao perfectly. He is the definition of "hustle player" and brings his energy to the floor night in and night out. He has also shown he's quite capable of not only knocking down the 15 to 18 foor mid-range jumper but also has a nice little on-the-block post game as well. At a glance he appears rather slow, but after watching him play you can't help but be impressed with his amazingly quick and precise foot-work that somehow allow him to get off good, open shots on much taller and bigger defenders. He's really helped this team with their toughness inside on both ends of the floor.

I saved my favorite Rockets starter for last: Shane Battier has possibly become the most well known role-player in the NBA. He is known as the perfect "glue-guy" to have on your team. He plays some of the best individual man defense in the league, always looks to make the extra pass and help keep the offense going, and always shoots near 40% from 3pt land to stretch the defense. He's essentially the perfect guy to have next to a solid SG(like T-Mac or Artest) and on the perimeter helping surround a great big-man(Yao). Look at his stat-line and you will not be impressed one bit; watch a game against the Lakers, Cavs, or Heat and you will understand just how valueable this guy really is.

You'll notice I've put 6 players in bold font. Basically, these are the starters for the Rockets. I included Kyle Lowry because I think along with Aaron Brooks they essentially make that real starting PG. They essentially split the minutes nearly right down the middle, so it's hard to say one if more important than the other. As much credit as I've given to Artest for filling in, to Yao for playing conistently great all season, to the two young guards for becoming great contributors, and to Scola and Battier for being the perfect role-players to have with this line-up; as much credit as I give them they are not the sole reason for the Rockets success and status. We have to remember the other players on the team; the players that get much less recognition and credit. These are often the guys that can really put a team over the top.

• PG: Aaron Brooks / Kyle Lowry
• SG: Ron Artest / Von Wafer
• SF: Shane Battier / Brent Barry
• PF: Luis Scola / Carl Landry
• C: Yao Ming / Dikembe Mutumbo
  

Look at the players not in bold: Von Wafer, Brent Barry, Carl Landry, and Dikembe Mutumbo. These are the guys that get little respect(well maybe Mutumbo) but are a key part of the teams success. Von Wafer is having the best season of his career. He's become a spark scorer off the bench that they've needed for awhile now; averaging 10 points for the season in less than 20 minutes. Every good/great team needs a guy like Wafer that you can bring in off the bench; a guy that can go off for 20+ points on any given night. Then there's Carl Landry who is one of the better backup power-forwards in the league. He's averaging 9.3ppg and 5rpg in 20 minutes off the bench, but more importantly he allows Yao or Scola to rest while the team maintains it's productivity. He is currently injured(somehow shot in the leg randomly, but thankfully he will be okay) and Chuck Hayes has filled in nicely; another pretty solid PF that can defend and rebound.

The Rockets usually use an 8-man rotation for the most part; Wafer, Lowry, and Landry are used off the bench as the main guys. Artest's and Battier's versatility to play anywhere from really SG, to SF, and even PF against smaller line-ups allows Rick Adelman to usually have at least one of them in the game at all times with his rotation. This allows the older veterans like Dikembe and Barry to take some games off; and when they do play it's not big minutes. But come playoff time these savy veterans will prove to be much more useful. Barry is that knock-down 3pt shooter that instantly spreads offenses, and Mutumbo is one of the best shot-blockers to ever play the game. These guys are getting their rest so they can be ready and healthy to really contribute come a 7-game playoff series.

All in all this team has essentially become a new contender in the NBA. A month ago the discussion would include the Lakers, Celtics, Cavs, Magic, and Spurs. The past month the Jazz have gone up and down and have shown they are possibly legit contenders as well, but the Rockets are not possibly contenders anymore. They are contenders. As a team they have the kind of key players, rotation, and style of play that make a team a contender. They have a very efficient offense while controlling the pace of their games. They have a a stud inside(Yao), a stud on the perimeter(Artest), perfect role players that complement the team perfectly(Scola and Battier), and have a quality young PG duo that has become productive and solid(Brooks and Lowry), as well as having key bench players that keep the team at the same level of play when they come in(Wafer, Landry, Barry, Mutumbo). The Rockets are possibly the best defensive team in the entire league; Artest and Battier is easily the best combination of perimeter defenders on any team in the NBA, and the team as a whole feeds off this and plays great team defense.

Defense wins championships....that's what they always say, right?
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Here's a rather entertaining video of good ole' Ron-Ron having some fun in their previous game against the Lakers. I figure if you read this entire article you deserve a quality laugh. Enjoy:

"The Undervalued Bird"

Once in awhile I feel like dedicating an article to one specific player. I've done this a few times, but never have I done it on a "role player" type of guy. I'm giving a round-house kick to that wall; columnists need to write more about the glue-guys and the role-players that make championship teams what they are. Honestly, where would the Celtics of been last year if it weren't for guys like Eddie House and PJ Brown, and of course James Posey; coming in off the bench and literally winning games for them(PJ Brown in game 7 against the Cavs; Posey in nearly every game). These are usually players whom are overlooked by the casual fan, and it's a shame the modern day columnist doesn't talk about them more. Sure, they went through their James Posey phase last year because of the key role he played in that entire playoffs(and finals), but it's all too soon forgotten.

In the modern times where the discussion and spotlight revolves around the star players and players who shoot those game-winning shots, we sometimes forget about the players that even give them the opportunity. We must remember it wouldn't be a one point game with 11 seconds left(allowing a star to take a hero game-winning shot) if it weren't for these great role-players that do all their dirty work within the confines of the game; rarely is this ever a last-second isolation or 3-point shot that gives a team a one point win(though it does happen). But you get my point, and I think the stars ego are getting to the point where they don't thank or appreciate the other guys, the role players, that allowed him to make that game-winning shot and have ESPN replay it all night.

This is a tribute to the role-players out there this year that have helped lift their teams to better records and playoff pushes behind the scenes; the ones that get little credit. Some teams have made trades and attained another "star" level player like the Heat with O'Neal and Denver with Billups; players that overshadow any of the new and/or key role-players that are actually just as important as these new stars. Many of the teams have more than one role-player that have helped in their teams push to the playoffs, so this is a salute to all of you role-players and glue-guys out there. Guys like Nicholas Batum of the TrailBlazers, Ronald Murray of the Hawks, Scola and Battier of the Rockets, Millisap of the Jazz, Mario Chalmers and Udonis Haslem of the Heat, and the list goes on and on...


Then there's guys like Chris "Birdman" Andersen(above) of the Denver Nuggets. The undervalued, almost unappreciated, backup big-man of the Nuggets. The guy that is currently 2nd in the league in blocks(but barely playing 20 minutes). The guy that comes in and contests and alters nearly every shot. The guy that brings 110% of his game night in, night out. The guy that never complains about only playing 12 minutes on a night his coach feels his starting bigs are playing great. The guy that thinks team-first rather than me-first.

A quick glance at his per game stats won't blow you away necessarily:

Per Game: 6.1ppg__5.9rpg__2.3bpg__19.6mpg

But maybe I spoke too soon. His per game stats still impress the hell out of me when I see that last little statistic: 19.6mpg. This guy is 2nd(second) in the league in blocks per game ahead of guys like Marcus Camby and Jermaine O'Neal who play nearly twice the minutes that the Birdman Plays. But let's take a deeper look into his stats so we can all realize just how damn solid and productive he's been for the Denver Nuggets this season. As I usually do, let's take a look at his Per36. If you aren't familiar with Per36: it's a stat that simply adjusts a players production to 36 minutes. It's a great way to compare players in a much more objective fashion. Simply put, it's going to show a players production as a starter getting starter minutes. While fatigue is not a variable, most trends have shown that a players per minute stats(like these) are pretty consistent as their play-time increases. Anyway, here's a look at Birdman's:

Per36: 11.3ppg__10.8rpg__1spg__4.3bpg

I think it's pretty safe to say he'd likely lead the league in blocks if he were getting anywhere near 30 minutes or so a game, let alone 36 minutes. While you need to consider how many fouls he commits, you'll see I included that stat as well; while 4.5fpg is somwhat high it would not really impact his inability to stay aggressive on the defensive end if he played 36 minutes. Simply put: if he started at power-forward or center for any team he would be a guaranteed double/double guy and possibly lead the league in blocks as well. Not too shabby.

PER: 18.0

A quick lesson(in case you're not familiar): PER is a rating system that John Hollinger created that is an extremely complex equation that basically takes all aspects of the game(points, steals, assists, blocks, FG%, turnovers, etc), weights them accordingly, adjusts it to average pace, and includes a multitude of things; the result is one number that can basically sum up a players efficiency and produciton when he's on the court. 15.0 is the average for all NBA players. The equation is not a clear-cut tool that you should use to solely judge a player, but it is a surprisingly effective and accurate statistic that has become increasingly popular because of it's results. For example, the top 5 PER's this season, in order: Lebron, Wade, Paul, Howard, Kobe. I think that pretty much speaks for itself as being a reliable equation and tool.

So applying our knowledge of that to Chris Andersen; he is much, much more efficient than an average backup player in the NBA. There are only 25 players above a 20.0 PER, and only about 50 who are above an 18.0 PER; while it's not a fact that Chris Andersen is a top 50 player I think I could put forth a pretty valid argument that he is very plausibly one of the top 50 most efficient and productive players in the league.

So while the entire world thinks all of Denver's success this season is based solely on the Nuggets getting Chauncey Billups in a trade sending Allen Iverson to Detroit, you can know that players like Chris Andersen play a huge role in their success as well. There's obviously a reason they lost Marcus Camby(NBA's leading shot blocker last season) and somehow managed to increase their defense and block more shots this season. While there's no doubt that Billup's leadership and court savvy have helped this team, he's not some savior to the Nuggets that all your sports buddies claim. Next time it's brought up you should probably give a few remarks to counter their oblivious statement:

1-Chris Andersen leads the league in blocks and has made up for Camby's departure on the defensive end; the Birdman blocks nearly 10% of all shots while he's on the floor.
2-Let's not forget the Nuggets did win 50 games last season(w/Iverson) and are on pace to only win a few games more; so somehow the Birdman has made up for Camby being gone....and I guess Billups just made up for Iverson leaving. Wait..... I thought that Billups replacing Iverson made this team that much better? Isn't that what everyone is saying? Then why are they only going to win a couple more games then last season?
3-Their are other variables(like Nene, JR Smith, and Kleiza stepping up too), but this article is about Chris "Birdman" Andersen.

He simply gives his team everything he has every minute he's on the court. Then of course there's the things that don't show up in stats. His energy and hustle that other members of his team feed off of and result in the entire team's defense picking it up and playing harder. The fact that he not only blocks 10% of ALL shots while he's on the court, but the fact that he alters and contests an even higher percentage than that. I've watched him literally change an opposing team's offensive mindset when he stepped on the court, blocked 2 shots in 3 possessions, and then altered about 2 more shots causing them to miss.

Basically, the Birdman is like an Energizer battery: when Denver's starters are getting tired they bring in Birdman to recharge the team and provide the energy they need on both ends; he keeps going and going and going. The Energizer Birdman never stops.

"Rookie of the Year: PER Style"

The Rookie of the Year(ROTY) award is one of the more interesting and discussed topics of the NBA each and every year. I find it more and more interesting as the season progresses and the rookie stats slowly change as each game is played. My intent with this blog is to show that there is no "clear-cut ROTY candidate" which is said all too often about Rose and Mayo. This draft class has slowly shown why they were considered one of the best draft classes in a long, long time(Hollinger has them as the most productive class of all time). Now PER is not a definitive stat to conclude something as fact; but it's a very reliable system that shows the efficiency and production of a player. We can see why some players per-game numbers are higher than others(minutes per game) among other variables(pace of team, percentages).

Player____________PER____mpg____
Kevin Love, Min.-------------18.00-------24.6
Greg Oden, Por.--------------17.78-------22.9
Brook Lopez, NJ.-------------17.47-------30.1
Marc Gasol, Mem.------------17.15-------30.5
Michael Beasley, Mia.-------16.08-------24.4
Russell Westbrook, OKC----15.83-------32.5
Derrick Rose, Chi.------------15.46-------36.7
R. Fernandez, Por.------------15.41-------25.6
Eric Gordon, LAC.------------15.17-------33.4
O.J. Mayo, Mem.-------------14.62-------37.8
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The numbers are quite surprising to me(I haven't been looking at the rookies comparisons with stats, PER, and Per36 that much lately. I know ROTY doesn't just take the most efficient or productive player according to PER or Per36 and deem him Rookie of the Year; that would take away from the award slightly. But like Hollinger has stated, it's usually a rookie that's in the Top 5 PER of all the rookies that ends up winning the rookie of the year; so why should this year be any different?

So why are Mayo and Rose always considered the leading candidates for ROTY? Basically because they play 38 and 37 minutes per game(which then make their per-game stats better)? I know that is definitely worth some points, and Rose being the leading PG on a playoff bound team gets him more points in my book as well; but as these other rookies have shown an uncanny ability to play at this NBA level and have increased their minutes and overall production, it's hard to say anybody is really in the lead right now. I honestly think the Per36 stat is a very useful stat as well, and while I am applying the PER stats for this blog I mention the Per36 quite often. It really is a great tool in measuring a players production(just like PER), and I really think Per36 is a better indicator of how productive a player really is(assuming they are playing more than 20 minutes per game). It shows what a player will do per minute, rather than an entire game. Trying to compare two players overall stats when one plays 30mpg and the other 40mpg can be a difficult task, so PER and Per36 are very, very useful for this.

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A somewhat in-depth breakdown of the top 10 rookie's(according to PER):

Kevin Love: PER-18.00(1st overall) 24.6mpg
Wow. Nobody probably saw that coming. Kevin Love, that "that white-boy who's got stumps for legs and will never amount to much in the NBA" kid that everybody thought was a joke when he was picked as the 5th player in the draft. Obviously all those "haters" were wrong in their assumption, and while Love is not a stud PF that will be one of your top options on offense, he has proven that he can be a very solid and productive player in this league. I guess it's not a huge surprise that his PER or Per36 numbers are so spectacular, as he has shown to be one of the most efficient rebounds in the game. He's also tough player on the offensive glass and gets a good amount of put backs, but he's also got a decent shot as well. His passing ability is great for a big as well(especially his full-court outlet passes). So he is leading the rookies in PER now(which is not an easy feat), and his role has increased with Al Jefferson going down. Loves minutes have slowly increased to about 25mpg with his increased role, and his numbers are still just as efficient. He's posting 10ppg and 9rpg in 25mpg on the season, so he's simply a guaranteed double/double guy with 30mpg. Not bad, not bad at all. Whether he's considered a top ROTY candidate is beyond me; being in Minnesota hurts him as well as his lack of total minutes. But as the season progresses and his MPG slowly climb, he could become a serious candidate, even with his defensive liabilities. I'm not sure he is a top candidate for the award yet, but if he continues to start and play at this high rate averaging 16/12 in 30 or so minutes a game then he could easily force his way into the top nominees by seasons end.

Greg Oden: PER-17.78(2nd overall) 22.9mpg
Personally, I don't consider Greg Oden to actually be in the running for ROTY. The injuries he's gone through this season have kept him from being healthy, and the lack of minutes(and total games) are variables that really hurt his chances of being considered. He has shown that he is extremely efficient and productive when he gets on the court and is somewhat healthy; the problem is it's such a rarity to see him do that. But you can't deny his numbers: 9ppg 7rpg and 1.2bpg, and remember that's in 22 minutes. His Per36 and PER are right with, or above, Brooke Lopez' numbers; but I definitely consider Brooke Lopez the front-runner in terms of rookie of the year(he's discussed next). Oden has shown why he was a top pick at times with his ability to block and alter a high percentage of shots, his ability to anchor a defense, his ability to rebound on both ends, and his ability to run the floor and finish at the rim with authority. I saw a few games where he was putting up close to 20/10 with 3 blocks a game, but that only lasted about 5 or so games because of his health. So while he will definitely become a force that nobody wants to match-up with down the road, right now he has only played in 46 games and only averaged 22mpg; thus I think he is taken out of the discussion.

Brooke Lopez: PER-17.47(3rd overall) 30.1mpg
I consider him the leading big-man in the ROTY race, yet even Hollinger dismisses him in his latest article. Lopez has posted great numbers this season(Per game and Per36) so while his per-game numbers stand alone as solid(12.6ppg 8rpg 1.9bpg), when you adjust them to Per36 it shows how effective on the court he really is. Lopez surprised a lot(I mean A LOT) of people this year; GM's, coaches, and fans have all been delightfully surprised with this kids ability to not only score, rebound and block shots(which he does at a great rate), but his athletic ability and versatility in running the floor and finishing on the break. He's a very fundamentally sound player as well; he has great foot-work in the post, he understand spacing and getting position, and he is very effective at setting screens and running the pick-and-roll. He has ckearky become the third piece for the Nets alongside Carter and Harris, and plays a big pole in their playoff push. I can't imagine him not being a top candidate for ROTY, but it seems he is still somewhat overlooked. He's easily the most valuable and deserving big-man for ROTY in my eyes, and I consider him to be in the top 5 players in the running for the ROTY, and deserves more attention when people talk about it.

Marc Gasol: PER-17.15(4th best) 30.5mpg
Another one of those unlikely rookies that most of us tend to overlook. He's been a consistently solid big-man all year, putting up solid all around per game numbers(12ppg, 7.6rpg 1,1bpg), and while those don't stand out as great ROTY numbers you have to consider he plays only 30 minutes per contest(so his PER and Per36 are great). Gasol is a solid all-around big-man that can score, rebound, block shots, and even rack up assists at a relatively high rate. He's already shown that he is one of the better passing bigf men in the league. Overall, he's just one of those solid big-guys that contributes on both ends of the floor. Mayo seems to steal all the rookie glory out of Memphis, but Gasol is proving to be as effective and efficient of a player. Whether or not Gasol is truly considered for ROTY is something I can't really judge, but I can say he deserves to be in the discussion. While I doubt he is considered with the top 5 candidates, I think he is not far behind, and could make a push for it with a few more of his special 20/10/3 games we've seen him have.

Michael Beasley: PER-16.08(5th best) 24.4mpg
He's kind of like Kevin Love; the low minute average will hurt him, but his overall per game stats are still solid, and because his role and minutes have gone up lately(since the JO trade) he has become a solid force as a rookie. He has an uncanny ability to score the basketball is a blast to watch. He can hit 3's, penetrate off the perimeter, even post-up. His deficiencies on defense go against him a little bit(like Love), but his numbers don't lie. If he played 36mpg he would bea 20ppg scorer, that's no lie, but an objective trend. If he continues this solid production with his role and minutes increased, all while helping Miami get into the playoffs as a 4seed, he should most definitely be considered. Currently I don't know if he is a top 5 candidate(mostly because of his lack of minutes and defense), but if he can get his minutes per game near 30 and still be as efficient as he's been, well, he can very possibly have a chance at winning the award. I don't personally see that happening, but you never know with Spoelstra and Beasley.

Russell Westbrook: PER-15.83(6th overall) 32.5mpg
He's done the exact opposite of Rose/Mayo. Russel started off the season slowly(stuck behind Earl Watson with PJ Carleisemo), but his numbers(per game) have increased every single month of this season; Westbrook has proven why he was taken so high in the draft. He is a very solid two-way player, known as a defender coming out, but I think he's surprised some people with his explosiveness on offense. He can create his own shot very well, can get to the rim at will, and has a decent mid-range game. He's actually eerily similar to Derrick Rose in many aspects of the game(just look how identical their Per36 numbers are). He is a very productive player who's only real downfall is his high turnover rate. He has shown he is capable of playing, and defending, both guard positions effectively, and just has a good feel for the game on both ends. , but being on a really bad team(like Mayo) is going to hurt them both a little bit I think, but not much. I think Westbrook is easily a top 5 ROTY candidate that has a great chance at winning it.

Derrick Rose: PER-15.46(7th overall) 36.7mpg
He's a stud and I believe the current favorite for the award; enough said. But his numbers have slowly faded as the season progressed. He started off the season with a bang, looking like he could possibly hold up 20ppg and 7apg numbers, which were a result of playing 40+mpg, but not just that(i don't know what exactly, maybe teams have tried adapting, or it's just the Bulls crowded back-court). But Rose's per game numbers are still really solid, but he does play 37mpg, so his Per36 numbers are basically his per game averages, which are very solid, don't get me wrong, but they don't stand out from the other top rookies either. The main thing with Rose is he is a leader; he is the starting PG that leads the team; a team that's possibly headed to the playoffs. He does have Gordon, Hinrich, and even Salmons that are all quality back-court players, so he is likely sacrificing some scoring to just get those guys more involved. I think Rose could average more assists, but I understand that Salmons and Gordon are both dribble heavy shooting guards that can make it hard to rack up assists. Now the things that we all know about Rose: he has great size and athleticism; he can get to the rim at will(he's mastered that floated); he is great at penetrating and creating for others; he's not a bad defender; and he's just an overall great talent that is a natural born leader. Whether Rose is the "shoe-in" for the award is beyond me; I do know that Rose is easily a top 5 ROTY candidate that has a great chance at winning it.

Rudy Fernandez: PER-15.41(8th overall) 25.6mpg
Talk about a dark-horse coming into the season. This kid was traded by the Suns to Portland for cash considerations, not a bad move by Portland. He has come over from Spain this year and instantly been an effective player on the court. He plays a great role off the bench for Portland, and is already one of the premiere 3-point shooters in the league. The great thing about Rudy is his energy, and while he can be considered as a 3-point specialist, he has a natural instinct for getting to the rim as well. He showed us in the All-Star Weekend dunk contest(and in the Olympics against over Superman) that he could jump with the best of them and throw down some pretty sick dunks. Rudy's numbers don't stand out as anything spectacular, but all season long he has gotten the job done very effectively, all while being efficient. I don't think he really has a chance at winning this award, but he deserves to be mentioned because he has contributed quite a bit more to Portland's success than people think. While Rudy is probably not a top 5 candidate for the award, he deserves some attention.

Eric Gordon: PER-15.17(9th overall) 33.4mpg
Yes he plays for the Clippers, I know, it hurts my eyes to watch Clipper games too(like their collapse to Cleveland the other night). But let's put that aside for one second; Gordon is slowly becoming a stud, just like these other rookies, and he's putting up a good amount of minutes like Lopez, Westbrook, Rose, and Mayo. So why is he never in the ROTY conversation? He's averaging close to 16ppg, and while his rebounding/assist numbers could be better(though they are similar to Mayo's) Gordon has shown he's a solid defender as well. He's a potent scorer, slasher, and a great 3-point shooter; just because he's on the Clippers doesn't mean we have to fully ignore the kid. I think he's shown why he was such a high lottery pick, and why he should be considered in the ROTY race. When you look at it from an efficiency/production perspective, Gordon is a very, almost eerily similar player to OJ Mayo. Just check out their Per36. Gordon is on the brink of being a top 5 candidate for this award, so if he can finish the season off strong he will likely be one of the players that will really have a chance at ROTY.

O.J. Mayo: PER-14.62(10th overall) 37.8mpg
Pretty astonishing that Mayo has the 10th overall PER. I really would of thought he was in the top 3 from looking at his per-game stats and just his overall game. I know PER isn't definitive of anything, but it really shows that Mayo is no more efficient than these other rookies; or it just shows how damn good this draft class really is(possibly the best ever in terms of production). Mayo leads the rookies in scoring at 18.8 points per contest, a comfortable 2ppg more than any other rookie, but also leads all rookies in minutes at nearly 38 minutes a contest as well. So looking at it in context his scoring is actually no more efficient(maybe even less) than players like Wesbtrook and Gordon who average around 16ppg and play far less minutes. But I don't want to spend all this time discrediting him either, because Mayo is definitely worth of a top nomination or even winning ROTY. He has proven to be a very capable scorer for Memphis all season; he is what we call a natural scorer: capable of shooting 3-pointers at a high clip(38%) but also has a very effective mid-range game, and a very effective slashing game. I do think his passing is very underwhelming, as he only averages 3 assists per game while playing 38 minutes and being a big part of creating Memphis' offense. As much as I criticize Mayo, it's only because he is such a solid player. He's a very solid all-around player, not a bad defender, and will be a great shooting-guard for years to come. Whether or not he's ever a star is to be determined; for now he's easily a top 5 ROTY candidate that has a great shot at winning it.
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Realize that even my opinion and perspective doesn't just look at the top 10 rankings of rookie PER's and assume the top 5 candidates are the players with the top 5 PER's, because that's obviously not at all what I have suggested. But the PER is a great way to get a little perspective on each players overall game, efficiency, and production, so to dismiss it as a worthwhile equation is absurd as well.

When determining the winner of the Rookie of the Year I think quite a few things should be analyzed when coming to a conclusion: Per game stats, Per36 stats, PER ratings, +/- of the players, and all the intangible things like leadership, defense, energy, etc. You obviously can't just look at the stats and give the award to the most attractive stat line averages, but I also think stats are a big part of sports and play a major factor in individual awards like ROTY.

I actually think it's very possible this season results in a TIE for Rookie of the Year, but I don't think it will be Mayo and Rose...........


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Sources:
(John Hollinger's latest Rookie Ratings with PER)

(Comparing the Per36 of Rose to Westbrook and Mayo to Gordon with Basketball Reference):